Dec 20, 20233 min read

19 Dec2023 Reports

My commentaries in ZaoBao today:

https://www.zaobao.com.sg/finance/singapore/story20231218-1456875

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https://www.zawya.com/en/mena

Phillip Capital Market Reports:

Stock Research

Phillip Daily Morning Note :

US Market (By Phillip Global Markets Night Desk)

19 December 2023

Declining Mortgage Rates a Gift for Builders

Last week the 30-year mortgage rate dipped below 7% for the first time since

August and the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4% for the first time

since July. That should be a holiday surprise for home shoppers. Earlier this

month, Douglas Yearley, the CEO of luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers, said

he was "encouraged" by the recent decline in mortgage rates. "With inflation

easing over the past few quarters, we believe rates may drop further and the

timing of the rate decline is setting up nicely for the upcoming spring selling

season," he added. On November 13, the Federal Reserve Bank of

Philadelphia released its Survey of Professional Forecasters. Survey

participants expected the 10-year Treasury note to yield 4.47% in 1Q24 and

4.39% in 2Q24. If interest rates remain lower than the 1Q24 and 2Q24 levels

that forecasters expected, interest-rate-sensitive sectors, such as housing,

could perform better than the survey participants expected. New housing

starts could surpass the approximately 1.35 million seasonally adjusted annual

rate (SAAR) that was predicted for 1Q24 and 2Q24. The Residential Fixed

Investment component of GDP could exceed the $726 billion (SAAR) that

survey participants expected for 1Q and the $723 billion (SAAR) they

expected for 2Q. On December 19, we expect the Commerce Department will

report November Housing Starts of 1.35 million (SAAR). On December 20,

we expect the National Association of Realtors will report November Existing

Home Sales of 3.8 million (SAAR). We expect the Commerce Department to

report November New Home Sales of 685,000 (SAAR) on December 22. The

S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for October will be released on

December 26. It jumped 3.9% in September. We expect a gain of about 2%

for October. The Zillow Home Value Index was up 1.8% in October. In this

evolving housing market, Argus recommends Lennar, D.R. Horton, and Toll

Brothers -- companies with solid financial strength that are adapting to market

conditions.

Market Wrap

US equity futures and Treasuries edged higher after the Bank of Japan stuck to sub-zero interest rates, and investors wagered upcoming US data will back the case for Federal Reserve easing.

Futures for the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1%, after the tech-heavy index hit a record Monday for the second consecutive session. Contracts on the S&P 500 gained a similar amount, with the underlying index approaching an all-time peak. Crypto stocks, including Coinbase Global and Marathon Digital, were among the gainers as Bitcoin advanced to trade above $43,000.

Today's Big News

Wall Street’s Tepid Bonuses for Traders Lumber Into Another Year
Apple Races to Tweak Software Ahead of Looming US Watch Ban (2)
Shipping’s Great Detour Gathers Pace as Houthis Menace Trade (1)
LNG Vessels Begin to Reroute Away From Red Sea on Rising Tension
Airline Shopping Spree Hands Airbus, Boeing Big Year of Orders
Citi Suit Raises #MeToo Allegations at Wall Street’s Top Levels

OCBC

Singapore: Steady as she goes…

Schneider Electric (SU FP) - Quality company deserving of a place in one’s portfolio

DBS

UOB

KGI

19 Dec2023 Reports

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