my ZaoBao interview :
SGX
Market Dialogues
Economic Calendar :
Phillip Capital Market Reports:
Phillip Daily Morning Note :
US Market (By Phillip Global Markets Night Desk)
2 October 2023
With Shutdown Averted, Market Can Focus on Jobs
Friday's employment report will tell us if the job market is cooling enough to keep the Fed on the sidelines. We expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to announce that the unemployment rate remained at 3.8% in September and growth in nonfarm payrolls decelerated to 150,000 from 187,000 in August. The three-month average is 150,000 as June and July payrolls were revised lower by a combined 110,000 jobs. We expect growth in average hourly earnings to remain at 4.3% and average hours worked to be flat at 34.4 hours. The United Automobile Workers strike, which started on September 15, should not affect the September payrolls because the workers were not out of for the entire reference pay period used for classification. The Current Employment Statistics (CES) Strike Report from the BLS, normally released on the Friday before the jobs report, is a little known, but valuable resource on strikes involving 1,000 or more workers during a reference period. The number of job openings has declined from 12 million when the Fed started tightening in March 2022 to 8.8 million in July. We expect to see a continuation of this trend tomorrow when the BLS releases the Job Openings and Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for August. We also expect the JOLTS report to show that the number of people leaving jobs voluntarily (quits) is continuing to decline based on the perception that a tighter job market is making it harder to trade up to a better position. An indication of a more-balanced job market, where the Fed can stop raising rates, may be if the ratio of job openings to unemployed, which peaked at 2.0 in March 2022, continues to ease from 1.5 in July.
Market Wrap
The global bond selloff resumed on Monday, with 10-year Treasury yields rising to the highest since 2007, as investors waited for a speech by Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell to provide clues on the direction of interest rates.
Treasury 10-year yields rose more than six basis points to 4.64%, while contracts on the US S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes slid, giving up earlier gains that were fueled by relief lawmakers had reached a deal over the weekend to avoid a government shutdown. However, the focus in markets has quickly shifted back to interest rates, especially as rising oil prices threaten to fan inflation.
Today's Big News
- BOJ to Buy Additional Bonds to Curb Rise in Sovereign Yields
- Newsom Picks Laphonza Butler to Replace Feinstein in Senate
- Biden Vows Fix After US Drops Ukraine Aid to Avert Shutdown
- Evergrande Seeks to Renew Trading After Chair Suspected of Crime
- Vaccine Breakthrough Behind Pfizer, Moderna Shots Wins Nobel
- Goldman’s Kostin Warns Higher Rates Starting to Hit US Profits
OCBC
DBS
US Senate passes 45-day funding bill to avert government shutdown
China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rises to 50.2 in September, expanding for the first time in six months
South Korea’s exports fall 4.4% y-o-y in September (vs -8.3% in August), its smallest decline in a year
Regional Market Focus
Prioritising resilience, visibility and recovery
Opportunities from favourable seasonal trends and attractive valuation despite weaker regional currencies
Position for earnings resilience and recovery as we enter the 3Q results season
Favour beneficiaries of Thailand’s temporary visa waiver
Which are our top picks?
Click here to read our views
China Real Estate
Physical market showed more signs of stabilisation
Preliminary presales data from CRIC revealed a mildly improved physical market in Sep-23 alongside a pickup in activities within tier 1 cities
31 developer’s presales we track recorded a narrower y-o-y decline of 30% and m-o-m growth of 23% alongside a pickup in project launches; Tier 1 cities recorded 16% m-o-m pickup in gross floor area (GFA) sold whilst Tier 2-3 cities were generally flat
Expect the moderate recovery trend throughout 4Q23 upon 1) likely pickup in project launch; and 2) impact from earlier policy easing to progressively filter through to the physical market
Will share price volatility bring about trading opportunities on quality names?
Click here to read our views
DBS Group Research | Equity Picks
Singapore Equity Picks: Read more
Hong Kong Equity Picks: Read more
UOB
Greater China: Closed
Click on the link for Indonesia Daily.
Click on the link for Malaysia Daily.
Click on the link for Singapore Daily.
Click on the link for Thailand Daily.
KGI
Top Stories, 2 Oct 2023
1. Asia-Pacific stocks mixed as China’s factory activity expands for the first time in six months
2. HKEX MSCI China A 50 Connect Index Futures is HKEX's first A-share derivatives product is based on the MSCI China A 50 Connect Index, a sector-balanced index that selects 50 names from among the largest stocks listed Stock Connect, and targets at least two stocks from each sector.
Find out more: https://www.kgieworld.sg/research/s53v
3. Congress averts US government shutdown hours before deadline
4. Big Oil, heavy industry discuss emission curbs ahead of COP28
5. China’s September factory activity sustains momentum: Caixin
6. Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD extends its downside below $1,950 ahead of US PMI, Fed’s Powell speech
Technical Analysis: 2 October 2023
🇸🇬 SG
SATS Ltd. (SATS SP)
Frencken Group Ltd. (FRKN SP)
🇭🇰 HK
Hua Hong Semiconductor Ltd (1347 HK)
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (981 HK)
Read More: https://www.kgieworld.sg/research/oct02ta23
TRADING IDEAS: 🇸🇬 SINGAPORE
2 October 2023
🏙 Geo Energy Resources Limited (GERL SP): Profit off from seasonality
BUY Entry 0.260 – Target – 0.305 Stop Loss – 0.240
🏢 China Aviation Oil Singapore Corp. Ltd. (CAO SP): Tourism outshines amidst gloomy economic recovery
BUY Entry 0.87 – Target – 0.95 Stop Loss – 0.84
➡️ Read More: https://www.kgieworld.sg/research/oct02sg23
CIMB
SIN: Property Devt & Invt - Slower price momentum in 3Q
Banks
Trendspotter of the day (SIN/MAL/APAC): 2nd October 2023
Bullish trend likely to be in an early stage
MAL
Breakout to the upside
At multi-year high
APAC+US
APAC: ASIA Pacific Daily - 02 October 2023
Equity Research Reports....
▌ RECOMMENDATION CHANGES & INITIATIONS...
MAL: UEM Sunrise Bhd (REDUCE▼, tp:MYR0.75▲) (ESG) - Share price running ahead of earnings (29/9)
PH: International Container Terminal Services Inc (ADD, tp:PHP274.50) - Staying strong amid turbulent seas (29/9)
▌ TARGET PRICE CHANGES...
MAL: VS Industry Bhd (HOLD, tp:MYR0.92▲) - Gradual improvement in order visibility (29/9)
THB: MK Restaurant Group (ADD, tp:THB54.25▼) - On track for GPM recovery (29/9)
▌ STRATEGY & ECONOMIC NOTES...
SIN: Strategy Note - Sep wrap-up: Singapore in 5 (29/9)
THB: Economic Update - Bright 4Q23 outlook and 4% growth in 2024 (29/9)
▌ SECTOR & COMPANY NOTES...
CHN: Banks (NEUTRAL) - Mortgage prepayments index fell in Sep (29/9)
THB: Indorama Ventures (REDUCE, tp:THB28.00) - Corpus Christi PET/PTA project on hold (29/9)
▌ RECENT 'IDEAs OF THE DAY'...
HKG: Property - Overall (NEUTRAL) - Time to lift some of the “harsh measures” (27/9)
CHN: Navigator-Strategy - Ride out of the bottom (25/9)
SIN: Singapore Post Ltd (ADD▲, tp:SGD0.60▲) - What’s next? (18/9)
THB: Retail (OVERWEIGHT) (ESG) - Stronger after the storm (15/9)
MAL: Malaysia Airports Holdings (ADD▲, tp:MYR7.76▲) - Exciting times to return (13/9)
MAL: CGS-CIMB Daybreak - 02 October 2023
What's on the Table...
MAL: UEM Sunrise Bhd (REDUCE▼, tp:MYR0.75▲) - Share price running ahead of earnings - 29/9
MAL: VS Industry Bhd (HOLD, tp:MYR0.92▲) - Gradual improvement in order visibility - 29/9
Management is guiding a high single-digit revenue growth and net margin of c.4.5% in FY24F on improving utilisation, ahead of new product launches. Its recent acquisition of HT Press Work (HTPW) boosts its in-house metal stamping capabilities and could translate to new order wins, in our view. Maintain Hold as the stock appears to be fairly valued at 17.1x FY24F P/E, with a slightly higher TP of RM0.92 as we lift our EPS forecasts.
MAL: Yinson Holdings Bhd (ADD, tp:MYR3.27▼) - Smooth execution of current projects - 2/10
▍ News of the Day....
Trendspotter – MY- Globetronics Technology (7022) (Technical Buy, 1.56): Breakout to the upside
• BNM expects Malaysia’s exports growth to remain in contraction in the near term
• The IMT-GT subregion recorded trade of US$727bn in 2022 (2021: US$618bn)
• Malaysia’s international reserves amounted to US$112.5bn at the end of Aug
• TNB plans to generate a total of 3,000MW of renewable energy by 2040
• UEM Sunrise issues Islamic medium-term notes worth RM350m
ASEAN: CGS-CIMB ASEAN Daily - 02 October 2023
Equity Research Reports....
▌ RECOMMENDATION CHANGES & INITIATIONS
MAL: UEM Sunrise Bhd (REDUCE▼, tp:MYR0.75▲) (ESG) - Share price running ahead of earnings (29/9)
PH: International Container Terminal Services Inc (ADD, tp:PHP274.50) - Staying strong amid turbulent seas (29/9)
▌ TARGET PRICE CHANGES
MAL: VS Industry Bhd (HOLD, tp:MYR0.92▲) - Gradual improvement in order visibility (29/9)
THB: MK Restaurant Group (ADD, tp:THB54.25▼) - On track for GPM recovery (29/9)
▌ ECONOMIC & STRATEGY NOTES
SIN: Strategy Note - Sep wrap-up: Singapore in 5 (29/9)
THB: Economic Update - Bright 4Q23 outlook and 4% growth in 2024 (29/9)
▌ SECTOR & COMPANY NOTES
THB: Indorama Ventures (REDUCE, tp:THB28.00) - Corpus Christi PET/PTA project on hold (29/9)
▌ RECENT 'IDEAs OF THE DAY'...
SIN: Singapore Post Ltd (ADD▲, tp:SGD0.60▲) - What’s next? (18/9)
THB: Retail (OVERWEIGHT) (ESG) - Stronger after the storm (15/9)
MAL: Malaysia Airports Holdings (ADD▲, tp:MYR7.76▲) - Exciting times to return (13/9)
THB: Oil & Gas Refinery (UNDERWEIGHT) - Diesel-led GRM recovery in 2H23F (12/9)
THB: Hospitals (OVERWEIGHT) - A race for medical tourism in Thailand (8/9)
Lim&Tan
MayBank
VN: VIETNAM ECONOMICS GBL: FX WEEKLY
GBL: FX FLASH
RN: ASEAN X MACRO
Yinson Holdings (YNS MK) Gamuda (GAM MK) Mynews Holdings (MNHB MK)
Int'l Container Terminal Svcs (ICT PM)
Velesto Energy Berhad (VEB MK)
Indonesia
コメント