Stepping into the second year of Period 9, many things come fast and go even faster, making the saying"the only constant is change" seem so appropriate to sum up the current economic landscrape.
2025 is a year of the Wooden Snake. With the star of sickness taking its turn to enter the center palace of 9-palaces flying star, the current widespread illness like Influenza will not end so soon. In fact, it could be just the begining of a epidemic. In addition, natural disaster like earthquake could also happen this year between June and September. So travellers must not forget to be get yourself well-covered with travel insurance before going for any trip.
Before we look at the stock market in 2025, let arrange the 5 elements of (metal, water, wood, fire, earth) in descending order based on their performance in 2025
(1) Fire (Strongest)
(2) Wood
(3) Water
(4) Earth
(5) Metal (Weakest)
In general, 2025 is not a bad year especially the first half of 2025. We can expect more harmonious relationships between countries at war. And that's what happening now with Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners released in the latest Gaza exchange... but this doesn't mean the end of the war. As more conflicts may arise again toward the 2nd half of 2025, and will even extend into 2026
Let's look at 2025 Li-chun Bazi above, you can see Fire and Wood elements are occuping almost 75% of the entire Bazi, and that symobilze the fire and wood related industries will either perform very well, or be in demand, or receive a lot of attention in 2025. Therefore we can conclude the following:
Tech stocks, AI and energy sector will continue take the center stage in 2025. Therefore, big cap stock like Keppel and Sembcorp will still be the fund managers' choice
In 2025 Li-chun Bazi, you can see Wood elements had successfully forms 2 alliances, depicted that more merger or collaboration may seem in the east like the existing alliance (more countries may join BRICS) and the existing unions will also be more united than ever. But many unsolved conflicts (e.g. U.S.-China war) remain unavoidable among countries since the Tiger and Snake meets in the earthly stem always result in fight, punishment or conflicts.
Next, the "month" heavenly stem is occupied by the Yang Earth element, and it meets Yin Water element which will always form the Fire element. Therefore, it can symbolize that property and REIT sector may continue to be pressure if the U.S. interest rate cut can't continue, but small, short-lived rebound can still be observed throughout the year.
For water (shipping (YZJ, Seatrium... etc), stock market...), though, they are not the leading elements in 2025. But we can still Yin Water has taken up the day and "hour" heavenly stem. Hence, we don't forget their presence... but the related industries are relatively less volatile and can also interpret as more stable, and continue to be stiff in their pricing. As such, do not shortsell any water element stock in 2025.
For metal (banking, gold...etc) element, commodities especially gold, will likely continue on a high note due to demands, but the related industry like Gold Miner, or Airlines, may turn a bit sluggish.
As of now, all news already give hint that the interest rate need not to be cut in a hurry as Fed Chair Powell signal in Jan FOMC. The tariffs will definitely give pressure to inflation, and the sector that need to put up with this, likely be REIT.
Snake year is always a year that more prompt to accident, please take note specially in the month of Feb, May, August and Nov.
In 2025, the key word to stay afloat is 静观其变 (to observe changes calmly; wait and see). With the volatility increasing, we must stay calm and do not run into the stock market in the heat of emotion because the share price will fall back easily after surge. Vice versa, do not cut loss if the selldown is not based on any fundamental issue from the company, for example active management is important in Period 9 because change is really the only constant.
In the past, investors were fine to be more passive to manage their investment by just buy on blue-chips and wait. But today, all stocks need to be managed actively in order maximum the return, and keeping 20% - 30% of entire portfolio in cash allow investors to scope some cheap staffs during market knee-jerk reaction hit.
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Observe the following period, as change in trend or rotation of in-play sectors may be taken place during this period of time
From 3 Feb - 4 Mar (18th Feb)
From 5 Mar - 3 Apr (20th)
From 4 Apr - 4 May (20th)
From 5 May - 4 June (21st)
From 5 June - 6 July (21st)
From 7 July - 6 August (22nd)
From 7 August - 6 September (23rd)
From 7 September - 7 October (23rd)
From 8 October - 6 November (23rd)
From 7 November - 6 December (22nd)
From 7 December - 4 January (21st)
From 5 January - 3 Feburary (19th)
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