Ada Tam Ying Ying

Nov 6, 20238 min read

6 Nov2023 Reports

What’s Trending: The recent sell-down, opportunities and risks ahead

https://x.edm.sgx.com/ats/msg.aspx?sg1=95c31808225210a472e3afdebdd9f739

SGX

Phillip OCBC DBS UOB KGI CIMB Lim&Tan MayBank

https://www.zawya.com/en/mena

Phillip Capital Market Reports:

Stock Research

Phillip Daily Morning Note :

https://mailchi.mp/phillip/phillip-morning-note-257003?e=ffecca3682

US Market (By Phillip Global Markets Night Desk)

6 November 2023

GDP Growth to Slow in 4Q

Our analysis of data that has been reported in recent weeks leads us to conclude that

key parts of U.S. GDP are still expanding, despite the impact of inflation, high interest

rates, and geopolitical developments. That said, growth is not consistent across all

segments of the economy, and, in some cases, growth rates are slowing. While the Fed

is on track to engineer a soft landing for the economy, recession in 2023-2034 remains

a possibility, though we think that the odds are diminishing. After reviewing the latest

economic data points, metrics, and trends, our forecast for GDP growth in 4Q23 is

now 2.0%, a pronounced decline from the 3Q level. Our estimate for the full year 2023

is now 2.8%, up from our prior forecast of 2.3% due to the blowout 3Q report. Our

preliminary forecast for GDP growth in 2024 is 1.8%, as the Federal Reserve, with its

tool chest again full after hiking rates during 1H23, can contemplate lowering interest

rates to recharge economic growth. Our estimates generally are in the range with other

forecasters, though perhaps a bit higher than the consensus. The Wall Street Journal

Economic Survey calls for GDP growth of 2.2% in 2023 and 1.0% in 2024. The

Federal Reserve is now anticipating GDP growth of 2.1% for 2023 and 1.5% in 2024.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's Survey of Professional Forecasters is calling for

growth of 2.1% in 2023 and 1.3% in 2024. A recent GDPNow forecast from the

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta was 2.3% for 4Q23.

Market Wrap

Stock and bond markets steadied after last week’s blockbuster rally, with traders still optimistic that US and European central banks may start cutting interest rates as soon as next year.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 index paused after recent gains and US futures added about 0.2%. Asian markets earlier jumped, with South Korea’s Kospi finishing more than 5% higher after regulators banned short selling. The dollar fell for a fourth day. Crude futures rose more than 1.5% after Saudi Arabia and Russia reaffirmed they will stick with their supply curbs through year-end.

Today's Big News

Israel Latest: Military Says Hamas Commanders Killed in Attacks
Winner-Take-All Rally Spurs Big Distortion Among S&P 500 Members
Yellen to Meet With China Counterpart This Week Before Biden-Xi
Brookfield Raises $26 Billion on Oaktree, Infra Fund Strength
Bankers Seek Legal Cover After Backing $1.5 Trillion of ESG Debt
China Builder Vanke Gets Support From Regulator, Biggest Holder

OCBC

Singapore Stocks: Dividend Yield Monitor (6 November 2023)

OIR Market Pulse (06 November 2023)

SIA Engineering Co Ltd (SIE SP) - Catching the wind

OIR Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (FLT SP) - A new dawn awaits

DBS

Market News

US non-farm payrolls rose 150k in October, lower than street estimates at 170k
Saudi Arabia and Russia committed to voluntary oil output cuts to year end over demand concerns
Singapore Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong to takeover as leader of PAP before the next General Elections

Global Container Shipping Sector

Closing in on a weak year

Container shipping market outlook for remainder of 2023 remains soft
Carriers’ 2Q23 operating profits continue downward trend
Solid activity in newbuild market carried on into 3Q23
Top 10 container carriers continued to expand
Who are our preferred sector picks?
Click here to read our views

Venture Corp (VMS SP)

Outlook is improving

9M23/3Q23 results below expectations, earnings for FY23F-25F cut by 7%/8%
Expect better 4Q23 with various NPIs in the pipeline forecasted
What other factors also lead us to believe that the worst maybe over?
Click here to read our views

AIMS APAC REIT (AAREIT SP)

Balance sheet well-positioned for next growth phase

Rental reversions continued strong at +33.7% in 1H FYE Mar 24
Gearing improved following recent divestment, providing AAREIT with ample headroom for AEIs and acquisitions
Planned AEIs/redevelopments progressing well; work expected to commence in FY25
What will help drive the next leg of growth?
Click here to read our views

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings Ltd (YZJSGD SP)

3Q23 - Key takeaways from briefing

Revenue and margins set on growth track with favourable steel cost and forex as well as delivery of higher value add, larger vessels
Low risks of cancellation / rescheduling despite softer economic and shipping outlook
Capacity expansion remains on the table; potential venture into retrofitting business
How will order book wins affect YZJ’s yard capacity for the coming years?
Click here to read our views

Manulife US Real Estate Inv (MUST SP) Worth a shot?

MUST’s 4th largest tenant renewed and extended lease, but portfolio occupancy continues to trend down (-0.4ppt q-o-q)
Key positives: i) Major tenants considering renewals/expansion; ii) Marc Feliciano (from sponsor) appointed board chairman
Data to watch: i) Potential resolution with lenders, ii) lower occupancy, iii) decline in hedging ratio
Will the newly appointed board chairman bring about optimism for MUST?
Click here to read our views

DBS Group Research | Equity Picks

Singapore Equity Picks: Read more

Hong Kong Equity Picks: Read more

UOB

UOBKH: Country Dailies: Monday, November 06, 2023

Click on the link for Greater China Daily.

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content_download.jsp?id=75951&h=7bbe4f4a7d7e316776e9224611c4c42f Click on the link for Indonesia Daily. https://research.uobkayhian.com/content_download.jsp?id=75953&h=b8ab95f1047c7b3492e278020dd27b14 Click on the link for Malaysia Daily. https://research.uobkayhian.com/content_download.jsp?id=75967&h=e229e8f706916fc3170a2d4c5b3ce643 Click on the link for Singapore Daily. https://research.uobkayhian.com/content_download.jsp?id=75946&h=df7ecf6cc561eb7ef88f188036259c41 Click on the link for Thailand Daily. https://research.uobkayhian.com/content_download.jsp?id=75968&h=9189be6c9e5a19b4f48d3140756a4b8a

UOBKH: Retail Market Monitor: Monday, November 06, 2023

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content_download.jsp?id=75945&h=160c13b3fdda7adce4c6304002d88ecc

UOBKH: Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, November 06, 2023 [GC Internet, 1299 HK, 1810 HK, ID Cement, MAL Property, SIME MK, MUST SP, VMS SP, WIL SP, YZJSGD SP, BTS TB]

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content_download.jsp?id=75944&h=8c1a079d033757466c8385d41a800428

KGI