( My Recommendation 🉐 )
STI Market forecast for the month of June :
Stay on the side
STI had touched the lowest of 3160 points last week, and reverse up on Monday to catch the market rally of debt-limit deal clears US Congress last Friday, ending threat of US default. However, STI failed to break up from resistance and now entering into a descending triangle pattern, meaning it is likely to swing down by end of this week (Descending triangles are a bearish formation that anticipates a downside breakout).
Since I had been calling to reduce portfolio size since early May and from now onwards, investors can start to bargain hunting but not buy into positions as market may consolidate more with many unresolved differences among countries. In fact, what the fund managers concerned most is the US economic situation as FOMC will hold June meeting next week. Whether to pause rate for a month or continue rate hike at a slower pace, inflation is still consider the biggest challenge to the global economies. In addition, Joe Biden debt-bill signing set to unleash tsunami of US debt sales, will the US Treasury bills issuance suck a bunch of liquidity out of the marketplace... Investors need to stay watchful on this, especially the Sec currently take actions against a few bitcoin exchanges may impact the liquidities in the market.
Look Back
Reviewing the entire May, the only sector that really won the race is AI-related and Tech sector. The fund managers believed the higher level of technologies like Artificial Intelligence is no longer a dream. Especially AI chip maker, Nvidia, is one of the top picks with buying signal. Looking at the entire month of May, putting Nikkei 225 aside, the Nasdaq surged 1000 points up. In the local market, so far we don't have the AI-related sector listed for investors to consider. But in contrary, many local traditional businesses, were in fact hammered lower like Comfort Delgro and Singpost.... in the view of fierce competition ahead. Be it the fund managers switching out from traditional businesses to AI-related sector or the disappointing earnings, the truth is AI had been using as a digital assistants in our day-to-day activities, replacing labor intensive jobs and pushing the quality of life to meet the new cutting edge of virtual reality.
If you wondered whether the tech counters are still good to buy.. yes but currently they are relatively too pricey to trade... but buy the dips. The next decade can't run away these few things: AI and Tech, EV and Defence.
Last but not last, many people asked if Japan can continue its uptrend momentum... Yes, also buy on dips.
Date: 6 June 2023
Date: 7 June 2023 (noon)
Market Update for 15-20 May 2023
Investor's Must-Know
Past Economic Events to note last week:
Singapore
Hightlights
Temasek's Ecosperity Week conference in June
Keppel DC Real Estate Investment Trust has been dropped from the Straits Times Index and will be on the reserve list. SEATRIUM will join the benchmark Straits Times Index (STI) from Jun 19, replacing Keppel DC Real Estate Investment Trust (Reit), following the latest quarterly review of the STI by FTSE Russell
Economic Data (last week)
Bank Lending 796.9B to 792.5B
Manufacturing PMI 49.7 to 49.5
United States
US presidential election will be held in Nov 2024
US Earning this week : https://finance.yahoo.com/calendar/earnings/
Hightlights
US debt ceiling bill passes House with broad bipartisan support [SCMP]
Joe Biden debt-bill signing set to unleash tsunami of US debt sales
US Regulators want to increase U.S. bank capital requirements by as much as 20% in an effort to strengthen the banking system after a string of failures this year
Economic Data (last week)
CB Consumer Confidence May: 103.7 to 102.3
Chicago PMI May: 48.6 to 40.4
JOLTs Job Openings Apr: 9.745M to 10.103M
Initial Jobless Claims May: 230K to 232K
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change May: 291K to 278K
Nonfarm Productivity Q1 qoq: 1.7% to -2.1%
Unit Labor Costs Q1 qoq: 3.2% to 4.2%
Manufacturing PMI May: 50.2 to 49.0
ISM Manufacturing PMI May: 47.1 to 46.9
Crude Oil Inventories -12.456M to 4.488M
Fed's Balance Sheet 8,436B to 8,386B
Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks 3.251T to 3.206T
Nonfarm Payrolls May: 294K to 339K
Private Nonfarm Payrolls May: 253K to 283K
Participation Rate 62.6% ro 62.6%
Unemployment Rate 3.4% to 3.7%
Other Countries
China, Hong Kong
# China Asks Big Banks to Cut Deposit Rates to Boost Growth (6 June)
# China's PMI weaker than expected. dragged down the performance of Asia Markets last week
# Dual Currency Counter Trading Launched Jun19 [link]
CNY's Chinese Composite PMI May: 54.4 to 52.9
CNY's Manufacturing PMI May: 49.2 to 48.8 CNY's Non-Manufacturing PMI May: 56.4 to 54.5 CNY's Caixin Manufacturing PMI May: 49.5 to 50.9
HKD's Exports Apr: -1.5% to -13.0%
HKD's Imports Apr: -0.6% to -11.9%
HKD's Trade Balance -40.6B to -36.6B
HKD's Retail Sales yoy Apr: 40.9% to 15.0%
Japan
Japan renews chip plan, confirms sales goal of US$108 bil [TheEdge]
Europe and Others
FTSE 100, DAX, CAC 40 and EURO STOXX 50
ECB's Lagarde sees no peak in core inflation despite 'moderation'
Coming Important Economic Data to take note:
➡️Singapore
Monday, June 5, 2023 : Retail Sales
Wednesday, June 7, 2023 : Foreign Reserves USD
➡️United States
(Next FOMC : June 13-14)
Sunday, June 4, 2023 : OPEC Meeting
Monday, June 5, 2023 : S&P Global Composite PMI
: Services PMI : Factory Orders : ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday, June 6, 2023 : EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
Wednesday, June 7, 2023 : Exports
: Imports
: Trade Balance
: Crude Oil Inventories Thursday, June 8, 2023 : Initial Jobless Claims***
: Fed's Balance Sheet
: Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks
➡️China, HK
Sunday, June 4, 2023 : HKD's Manufacturing PMI
: CNY's Caixin Services PMI
: CNY's Chinese Composite PMI
Monday, June 5, 2023 : CNY's Caixin Manufacturing PMI Tuesday, June 6, 2023 : CNY's Exports
: CNY's Imports : CNY's Trade Balance Wednesday, June 7, 2023 : HKD's Foreign Reserves USD
: CNY's Foreign Reserves USD
Thursday, June 8, 2023 : CNY's CPI : CNY's PPI
Market Focus that Matters
📌 🌀Highlights🌀
# Saudi pledges big oil cuts in July as OPEC+ extends deal into 2024
# APPLE'S NEW LAUNCHED HEADSET PRICED AT US$3,499 !
# Southeast Asia's green investments dipped 7% y-o-y to US$5.2 bil in 2022
# US's SEC sues Binance and CEO Zhao for breaking securities rules
# Coinbase sued by SEC for breaking US securities rules
# Global airline profit estimate jumps to US$10 bil in 2023 # Fed signal for rate pause takes pressure off hot jobs report
# While many tech companies join the AI chase, experts warn that Artificial intelligence may lead humanity to ‘extinction... # Elon Musk visits China today; traveling to China amid Sino-American tensions # Cathie Wood Says Tesla Stock Could Soar 1,030% by 2027 -- Elon Musk Says It's the Best Analysis He's Seen : # While many tech companies join the AI chase, experts warn that Artificial intelligence may lead humanity to ‘extinction...
Singapore :
City Energy, Senoko Energy sign MOU to study hydrogen import and supply between their facilities
Morgan Stanley plans move to new Singapore office in growth boom
Goldheart’s e-commerce website breached with close to 42,000 customers’ personal information compromised
Sembcorp Gas signs $1.9 bil sales agreement to import natural gas piped from Indonesia
Sembcorp begins process to explore potential divestment of SembWaste
Citi ups Sembcorp’s TP to $5.98 as it moves to next phase of brown-to-green transformation
LREIT to acquire stake in Parkway Parade for $88.9 mil
Digital Core REIT's second-largest customer Cyxtera files for bankruptcy
Challenger Technologies' chairman improves privatisation offer to 60 cents per share
China's Milkyway Chemical makes 22.66 cents GO for LHN Logistics
MAS to launch consultation on inclusion of coal phase-out criteria in Singapore’s taxonomy
Seatrium to be included in the STI; Keppel DC REIT heads for reserve list
CPIB launches investigation into Seatrium for alleged corruption in Brazil (update)
Sysma chairman offers to privatise company at 16.8 cents
Crypto.com receives full approval from MAS for payments licence
Dyna-Mac eyes growth and recurring income, mulls buybacks and higher payouts
IPO: Medical supplies firm Pasture Holdings aims to raise $5 million via all-placement IPO
AIMS APAC REIT seeks to raise $100 mil through private placement and preferential offering
📌 🌀SG Earning Announcement🌀
Watch out for the Second Quarter Earning reporting season in July 2023...
Yanlord reports 437.5% y-o-y surge in total contracted pre-sales of RMB6.1 bil in May
Changi Airport Group swings from losses of $838 million to FY2023 earnings of $33 million
MTQ triples earnings, seeks 'steady growth' from the traditional energy business
IHH reports higher earnings on operations recovery and one-off disposal gain
📌
🌀Latest Market View published in ZaoBao/Media🌀
(May 2023)
Interview at ZaoBao on 3 June, click HERE to access if you are their subscriber.
Interview at ZaoBao on 31 May, click HERE to access if you are their subscriber.
📌
🌀SGX & Other Newsfeed🌀
CASH PLUS Promotion:
Low-commission trading account is available... and check out for Promotion Details
(Waived for US and HK Foreign Custody fee until 31 December 2022.)
Important Disclaimer
A. Reminders: 1. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd ("PSPL") will generally provide you "execution only" services - see Guide and Cautionary Notes for Trading Accounts on www.poems.com.sg. You are therefore personally responsible to make your own decisions on the suitability of every securities transaction you do through PSPL. One exception is if you specifically apply and pay for advice from PSPL. The other is referred to in reminder 2. 2. Execution-Related Advice ("ERA") on listed Excluded Investment Products may be given to you, but only subject to strict conditions. These include (a) you accepting personal responsibility to ensure any such advice is suitable before you act on it, and (b) you ensuring that you both receive and understand the rationale for every ERA given to you. 3. Materials (including market and analyst reports) are provided to you as information on an execution only basis for you to make your own suitability decisions. Materials which are not ERA are provided strictly as you asked. These reminders apply to the contents of this e-mail as well as any and all accompanying materials sent under its cover. B. General Disclaimer: The information/materials provided (whether as attachments to this e-mail or in its body), where they are not ERA on listed Excluded Investment Products in compliance with the second reminder above, are provided for general information/circulation only and not intended and therefore should not be taken as any offer or solicitation to do any investment or trade. No assessment has been made by PSPL as to the suitability for you of any materials in or under this e-mail. As always, the decision to trade and/or invest remains solely with you. Information/materials in or under this e-mail are provided as is without warranty of any kind, either express or implied. Such information/materials provided have been procured from sources which are believed to be reliable and accurate (but whose reliability and accuracy cannot be and are not warranted); and may have been acted on by PSPL or members of the PhillipCapital group of entities before being made available to you. All investments are subject to investment risks. Ideally you should and you may wish to seek advice from an independent financial adviser before making a commitment to purchase or invest in the investment product(s) mentioned either in this e-mail or its attachment(s). If you choose not to do so, you are then choosing to make your own decision on whether any of the said investment product(s) are suitable for you. Neither PSPL nor any fellow member of the PhillipCapital group of entities shall, in any event, be liable to you for any direct/indirect or any other damages of any kind arising from or in connection with your reliance on any information in and/or materials attached to this email. C. General Confidentiality Note: This e-mail and its attachment(s) are intended only for the use of the recipient(s) named above. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender immediately and delete all copies of it.
Confidentiality Note
This e-mail and its attachment(s) are intended only for the use of the recipient(s) named above. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender immediately and delete all copies of it.
Σχόλια