Market Update for 1 - 7 Mar 2023
Market forecast for 2nd Week of Mar
Past Economic Events to note last week:
➡️G20 Summit 2023 in India
SGD : Retail Sales mom Jan : 1.3% to -9.4%
➡️Fed officials are dropping big warnings they could raise rates more than expected as inflation stays stubbornly high [link]
➡️US sanctions Chinese businesses [link]
Future Events to note next Week:
➡️Future FOMC Meetings in 2023
March. 21-22* ; May. 2-3 ; June. 13-14* ; July. 25-26 ; September. 19-20*
➡️7/8 Mar; USD : Fed Chair Powell Testifies
➡️8 Mar; China's CPI and PPI
➡️8 Mar; US's JOLTs Job Openings
➡️10 Mar; US's Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Federal Budget Balance
Week after Next*** :
➡️14 Mar; US's OPEC Monthly Report; CPI yoy mom Feb
➡️14 Mar; China's Industrial Production
➡️15 Mar; US's PPI; Retail Sales
➡️16 Mar; US's Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index; Building Permits; Import Price Index
➡️16 Mar; SGD's Non-Oil Exports yoy mom Feb
➡️17 Mar; US's Industrial Production yoy mom Feb; Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Market Forecast:
STI at 3240 points level is undoubtedly a critical point to hold as 100 MA and 250 MA are both crossing each other at this point... see the green and blue lines below. And once STI drifts down below 250 MA line, technically STI will enter into bear market. Normally, it will take 3-6 months for any stock market to undergoing bear market. Investors must take note of it.
Investment Theme
Today, AI (Artificial Intelligence) and ESG (Environmental, social, and corporate governance) are the latest themes that people are talking about it, and many tech stocks had rebounded previously because of AI Chatbot. Taking Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) as an example, it had previously tumbled due to chip sales saga (US restricted Chip sales to China and Russia) had been forgotten by market and the share price once again in the limelight under the obsession of mind-blowing ChatGPT AI Chatbot launched recently. And today Google, Meta/Facebook, Microsoft are in a race to introduce their own chatbots, compete for the market share and to be the market leader.
Next, 6G had finally arrived to retail customers for subscription, and investors can read the following to find out more about the latest trend of national digitalization... but to buy into related stocks like Singtel, investors can consider to buy after Q2.
➡️ New blueprint for 10Gbps home links, 6G mobile as S’pore gathers speed in digital race [link]
Conclusion
Many countries had released their Industrial PMIs last week, and most of them reported a better MoM data, as the rise in productions was noted in the month of March. But for Singapore, the sudden dropped in Retail Sales is a surprise to the market, even though analysts had factored in the ending of festive in January should likely affected the retail sales in February, this drop was still unforeseen.
In the month of March, I am relatively more pessimistic, and investors can continue to diversify partial of their portfolios into Energy, Agricultural and ESG related counters. Last but not least, investor can take note of the following article and be more risk-averse in investment as hedge fund activities are always on the go during the bearish market.
➡️ Singapore monitors short-sellers after Adani-Hindenburg saga [link]
My latest Market View published in ZaoBao in the month of March 2023:
Interviewed for Agricultural Stocks dated on 03 Mar 23:
🌀SG Earning Announcement🌀
Watch out for the First Quarter Earning reporting season in Apr-May 2023...
FUTURE
🌀 Highlights of Economic Calendar: 6 - 11 Mar 23 🌀
| Mon 6 Mar 23 | Tue 7 Mar 23 | Wed 8 Mar 23 | Thu 9 Mar 23 | Fri 10 Mar 23 |
Singapore | | Foreign Reserves USD | | | |
United States | Factory Orders | Fed Chair Powell Testifies | Fed Chair Powell Testifies | Initial Jobless Claims | Unemployment Rate |
China | Imports Exports | | CPI | | |
Hong Kong | | | | | |
Australia | Interest Rate Decision | | | | |
Britain | Construction PMI | | | GDP | |
See below for more important data to be announced:
Mon, 06 Mar 23 USD : Factory Orders mom Jan : 1.8% to ?
GBP : Construction PMI Feb : 48.4 to ?
CNY : Imports, Exports (YoY) Feb : ?
AUD : RBA Interest Rate Decision : 3.35% to ?
Tues, 07 Mar 23 SGD : Foreign Reserves USD mom : 291.7B to ? USD : Fed Chair Powell Testifies
USD : EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
USD : API Weekly Crude Oil Stock : 6.203M to ?
Wed, 08 Mar 23 USD : ADP Nonfarm Employment Change : 106K to ?
USD : Exports : 250.20B to ?
USD : Imports : 317.60B to ?
USD : Fed Chair Powell Testifies
USD : JOLTs Job Openings Jan : 11.012M to ?
USD : Crude Oil Inventories : 1.165M to ?
CNY : CPI mom Feb : 0.8% to ?
Thu, 09 Mar 23 USD : Initial Jobless Claims : 190K to ?
Fri, 10 Mar 23 GBP : GDP mom Jan : -0.5% to ?
USD : Nonfarm Payrolls Feb : 517K to ?
USD : Unemployment Rate Feb : 3.4% to ?
USD : Federal Budget Balance Feb -39.0B to ?
PAST
🌀 Things to note of past Economic Calendar: 27 Feb - 4 Mar 23 🌀
Mon, 27 Feb 23 SGD : Bank Lending : 813.5B to 807.1B
HKD : Exports mom Jan : -28.9% to -36.7%
HKD : Imports mom Jan : -23.5% to -30.2%
USD : Core Durable Goods Orders mom Jan : -0.4% to 0.7%
USD : Pending Home Sales mom Jan : 1.1% to 8.1%
JPY : Industrial Production mom Jan : 0.3% to -4.6%
Tues, 28 Feb 23 USD : Goods Trade Balance Jan : -89.67B to -91.50B USD : CB Consumer Confidence Feb : 106.0 to 102.9
USD : API Weekly Crude Oil Stock : -9.895M to 6.203M
AUD : CPI yoy : 8.4% to 7.4%
CNY : Manufacturing PMI (Feb) : 50.1 to 52.6
CNY : Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb) : 54.4 to 56.3
CNY : Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Feb) : 49.2 to 51.6
Wed, 01 Mar 23 GBP : Manufacturing PMI (Feb) : 49.2 to 49.3
USD : Manufacturing PMI (Feb) : 46.9 to 47.3
USD : ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb) : 47.4 to 47.7
USD : Crude Oil Inventories : 7.648M to 1.165M
Thu, 02 Mar 23 SGD : Manufacturing PMI : 49.8 to 50.0
HKD : Retail Sales yoy Jan : 1.1% to 7%
HKD : Manufacturing PMI Feb : 51.2 to 53.9
CNY : Caixin Services PMI Feb : 52.9 to 55.0
USD : Initial Jobless Claims : 192K to 190K
USD : Nonfarm Productivity qoq Q4 : 1.4% to 1.7%; estimate 2.6%
Fri, 03 Mar 23 SGD : Retail Sales yoy Jan : 7.7% to -0.8%
SGD : Retail Sales mom Jan : 1.3% to -9.4%
USD : S&P Global Composite PMI Feb : 46.8 to 50.1
USD : ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Feb : 55.2 to 55.1
📌
Other Focus (Highlights of Results / Corporate Actions):
Local news:
EPF and abrdn loads up on AEM shares
Keppel to divest Greenfield Development for $75.6 mil
ESR Group receives initial go-ahead for IPO of C-REIT
Earning Results:
Japfa's FY2022 earnings down by 93% to US$8.2 mil on the back of 'global challenging environment'
Q&M Dental slips into loss of $2.2 mil for 4QFY2022 on lower Covid-19-related revenue contribution
Rex International ends FY2022 with earnings of US$0.4 mil, contrary to earlier profit warning
Hong Fok FY2022 earnings up 466% on revaluation gains
Cosco books $99 million impairment for FY2022
Oceanus reports record revenue but a loss for FY2022
OUE doubles 2HFY2022 earnings to $ 101.2 million
Resources Global reports 34.6% increase in 2HFY2022 earnings of $12.0 mil
Jardine Matheson reports higher 'underlying' earnings for FY2022, proposes higher dividend payout
Uni-Asia reports record earnings, cautiously optimistic despite softening shipping market
ValueMax posts 7.0% increase in FY2022 earnings to $44.4 mil
Sembmarine's FY2022 red ink more than expected but analysts stay positive on post-merger prospects
First Resources reports 53.4% growth in 2HFY2022 earnings of US$197.2 mil, declares final dividend of 12 cents per share
Yangzijiang Financial reports 80% lower earnings of $25.6 mil in 2HFY2022; declares dividend of 1.8 cents
Centurion reports 12% y-o-y decline in 2HFY2022 earnings of $38.5 mil
Yanlord Land reports 2HFY2022 earnings of RMB155.6 mil, 92% lower y-o-y
IHH Healthcare reports FY2022 earnings of RM1.55 bil, 16.9% lower y-o-y
Straits Trading reports FY2022 earnings of $551.3 million, led by divestment gains
Yeo's returns to profitability with 2HFY2022 earnings of $1.2 mil
Thakral reports lower FY2022 earnings on higher costs, plans special dividend to bring yield to 8%
Matex reverses to earnings of $9.6 mil for 2HFY2022 after disposal of its subsidiaries
Mewah reports earnings of US$99.5 mil for the 2HFY2022, 78.6% higher y-o-y
UMS posts record performance in FY2022, earnings up 85% to $98.2 mil
Samudera Shipping reports 2HFY2022 earnings of US$150.3 mil, 63.6% higher y-o-y
Golden Agri reports 2HFY2022 earnings of US$392.4 mil, 21.5% higher y-o-y
Other News
Amazon is closing its cashierless stores in NYC, San Francisco and Seattle [link]
China plans to inject US$1.9 bil into top memory chipmaker
Snap debuts ‘My AI’ chatbot powered by OpenAI’s GPT technology
📌
SGX & Other Newsfeed
💡 SGX <Analyst Research>
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