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Dear investors, thank you for your supports for the past decade. Moving from simple email newsletter to now having my very own website, I had been trying ways to ensure important information can be reached out to you on weekly basis. However, technology advances had changed our world and the existing ways of communications may still seem too slow and passive to the volatile stock market today. Therefore, I had decided to further revamp my communication site with you by making it more readable so that you can grab the key takeaways easily without taking too much times of readings.
From this September onward, I will write the Market Update on the monthly basis, and the contents will include of STI index Technical Analysis, Market Forecast and Stock Analysis on at least one stock for better investment decisions.
For weekday daily update, I will broadcast in my Community Group in POEMS 3.0 Mobile App : FengShui-007, and you can join by clicking this link HERE after login to POEMS 3.0
My Life Motto: Making continuous improvement, is the only way to reach success.
( My Recommendation 🉐 )
STI Market forecast for October: Can continue to buy on dip
Straits Times Index (STI)
Immediate resistance at 3240 level in October
Observation : MACD Golden Crossover (Sept) still trying to form
Possible Direction : STI Index is moving within the channel bounded by Line 1 and Line 2, and if STI had jumped back to the descending triangle bounded by purple Line 1 and Line 3... the chance of STI breaking up from this triangle pattern is high but with the current political instability STI can fall back anytime
Remark: The 3Q reporting season is soon starting in the mid of October, and investors need to take note.
Market Forecast
The disappointing economic data in Sept gave pressure to STI, as followed:
Singapore Economic Data 2/9: Manufacturing PMI Aug : 49.9 (prev 49.8) 5/9: Retail Sales MoM (Jul) : 0.6% (prev -0.8%)
5/9: Retail Sales YoY (Jul) : 1.1% (prev 1.0%) 13/9: Unemployment Rate (Q2) : 1.9% (prev 1.9%)
17/9: Non-Oil Exports (YoY) (Aug) : -20.10% (prev -20.3%) 17/9: Non-Oil Exports (MoM) (Aug) : -3.80% (prev -3.50%)
17/9: Trade Balance : 3.584B (prev 6.509B)
25/9: Core CPI (YoY) (Aug) : 3.40% (prev 3.80%)
25/9: CPI (MoM) (Aug) : 0.90% (prev -0.20%)
25/9: CPI (YoY) (Aug) : 4.0% (prev 4.1%)
26/9: Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) : -10.5% (prev 3.7%) (Link)
26/9: Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug) : -12.1% (prev -1.1%)
In the FOMC month, the stock markets had taken a roller coaster ride in Sept... having STI fell straight for 5 days after the U.S. interest rate was paused again for 2nd times, and all because of the Fed Chair's anticlimax remarks about the future interest rate trend will "likely stay high for longer" pushes almost all indexes to free fall and eventually turn directionless to end the Q3 of 2023.
And another market concern is the possible US government shutdown. Although for the time being, shutdown was avoided because of the temporary funding bill but it will only last for 45 days to keep their agencies opened until 17 Nov. Investors need to take note of such important date to avoid over-exposure in the market.
High oil price will likely to persist, especially now there was a war in Israel, and this will trigger other soft commodities to surge like gold, natural gas... as well as food price
And I would like to divide the month of October again into 3 parts for observation, and I will discuss next month on the market trend.
Important Data to take note as stepping into Q4 Subjected to changes): Start of Oct - 7 Oct :
SG : URA Property Index (1 Oct) : 0.5% (prev -0.2%) Manufacturing PMI (3 Oct) : 50.1 (prev 49.9) Retail Sales (5 Oct) : 1.7% (prev 0.8%) MoM, Aug Foreign Reserves USD (6 Oct) US : ISM Manufacturing PMI (2 Oct) Fed Chair Powell Speaks, ISM Manufacturing PMI (2 Oct) JOLTs Job Openings (3 Oct)
OPEC Monthly Meeting, Service PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI (4 Oct) ADP Nonform Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (4 Oct) Initial Jobless Claims, Export/Import/Trade Balance (5 Oct) Nonfarm Payrolls, Umemployment Rate (6 Oct) 8 Oct - 22 Oct :
SG : Non-Oil Exports (16 Oct)
US : PPI (11 Oct) CPI (12 Oct) Export/Import Price Index (13 Oct) Retail Sales (17 Oct) Industrial Production (17 Oct)
Building Permit, Housing Starts (18 Oct) Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Existing Home Sales (19 Oct)
23 Oct - End of Sep : "keep in view"
Stock Analysis : Gold (price reference to GLD US$.SG)
Immediate resistance at 173 (hit the 6 month low)
Observation : Sudden switch from upward trends and fall to six-month low
Possible Direction : Buy on dip
Remark: Gold prices declined on firm USD and the rising treasury yields... in addition to the likelihood that the U.S. interest rate will stay higher for longer, had triggered the demand for U.S. assets. But the war in Israel had suddenly make Gold a popular choice for safe haven.
Investors can consider to add gold into your portfolio.
Market Update for past month
Investor's Must-Know
Keppel REIT replaces Olam Group in STI reserve list
Headline inflation falls to 4.1% while core inflation declines to 3.8% on y-o-y basis in July
Singapore's domestic and foreign wholesale sales declined by 21.8% and 18.9% y-o-y in 2H2023
Singapore’s July NODX contracts by 20.2% y-o-y mainly due to declines to the EU 27, Taiwan and China
Other Market Focus that Matters
📌 🌀Highlights🌀
MAS panel discusses ways to phase-out coal-fired power plants, adopt alternative fuels, attract private financing
TD Ameritrade to stop serving retail investors from Dec 1
Investor can refer the following links for update of latest news: https://www.theedgesingapore.com/ https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/
📌 🌀SG Earning Announcement🌀
Watch out for the 2023 SG 3Q Earnings Season starts in mid of Oct 2023...
📌
🌀September Market Reports and My Market View published in ZaoBao/Media 🌀
(Sep 2023)
📌
🌀SGX & Other Newsfeed🌀
CASH PLUS Promotion:
Low-commission trading account is available... and check out for Promotion Details
(Waived for US and HK Foreign Custody fee until 31 December 2022.)
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