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Writer's pictureAda Tam Ying Ying

Market Update : U.S. Holidays may end the week with no directions

(Update from 16 - 22 November and market forecast)



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US

FOMC Meeting Minutes, Consumer Sentiment and many other important economic data will be announced this Wednesday (US times) before market goes for Thanksgiving break

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Bitcoin falls to US16,000 level

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18 - 19 Nov : 2022 APEC Ministerial Meeting, Thai

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European Central Bank Meeting


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Points to Note

  • Hyflux's former CEO, CFO and independent directors charged with offences under SFA and CA

  • Binance placed on alert list after complaints; all crypto exchanges can fail: MAS


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My latest Market View published in Sunday Times for the month of Nov:


Here’s the link:

dated on 20 Nov



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To Investors :

Investment tip takeaway 🦉 this week:

U.S. Thanksgiving Holiday, may end the week with no directions


This week, market had pull back quite a fair bit on Monday (as I'm getting worrisome over the sudden drop in U.S. Housing Start as well as their Existing Home Sales). but I think one key index, NODX, continued to slide as announced last week, and we can see the surges in 3 banks prices had been the driving force of STI last week, and on Monday, DBS and UOB were fallen into the top 30 losers list instead, causing STI closed -21.61 point at 3,250.62.


Therefore, I believed market will likely to continue in pulling back on Tuesday... But in the month of November, any pull back could give traders a short-term buy opportunities (as mentioned in my previous interview). Hence, I expect Wednesday onward, market may rebound as STI's the current critical support is on 3200 points, and it is very important to hold on this level for STI keep in its uptrend momentum and market is started to gear up for Q4 earning next year. Nonetheless, U.S. Thanksgiving holiday will be on coming Thursday and only half day for Friday this week, many economic data announcement have been pushed forward to Wednesday night. Therefore, the 2nd part of the week may become more volatile or even no direction with the absence of the U.S. market participation.


In Singapore, investors need to take note of important economic data announced later this week, which includes GDP, CPI and Industrial Production. Given last week on Non-Oil Domestic Exports (NODX) was reported 5.6% drop in Oct, as weak demand on the electronic products, pharmaceuticals, petrochemicals... etc continues. (Click Here to know more about NODX) The recent drastic increase in job cut across the big Tech companies, and I'm cautious with the chip-making and IT related industries as fund managers are likely to start re-structure their portfolio after window dressing, and institutions may even reduce their exposure in certain industries like IT to protect their portfolio values from being affected in future if there's any further downgrading in 2023.


Last but not least, the bankrupted FTX saga had impacted bitcoin price to free fall from critical support of US 20,000 and broke through 16,000 level again this morning. Together with the U.S. Dollar started to turn weaker recently due the falling CPI, the Forex market could likely to impact the prices of the equities to further retreat as fund managers may need to quickly sell the on-hand USD dominated assets and convert back the money back to other bottom-low valued currencies for keeping a well balanced portfolio.


For China to tighten on COVID measure, it is not as worrisome as before if it didn't impose any further restriction on Hong Kong to follow suit. About 2 weeks ago, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority hosted the Global Financial Leaders' Investment Summit and the chief executive John Lee announced that they will uplift the Covid-19's restrictions and head 'back to business'. However, the China's tightening may continue to limit the flow of people to cross border for spending, which in turn will impact the revenues of businesses that relying on retail sales like casino, food and beverages, education, financials and property in Hong Kong Market. But the impact in Singapore Market will not as influential as the mainstream of businesses is still with United States.


Q3 Earning Result Announcement :

  • GoTo reports narrower adjusted ebitda loss of IDR3.7 trillion in 3QFY2022 results

  • Alibaba posts surprise loss as China Covid curbs take a toll

  • CSE Global reports 22% higher revenue in 3QFY2022

  • Grab narrows loss by 65% to US$342 mil in 3QFY2022

  • Sea reports net loss of US$569.3 mil for 3QFY2022, down 0.3% y-o-y

  • Delfi reports 539% y-o-y surge in patmi for 3QFY2022



SG Earning Announcement

Watch out for the Final Year Earning reporting season in 2nd part of Jan 2023...



📍Economic Calendar: 21st - 25th Nov📍


Singapore

(Tue/Thu, November 22/24, 2022)

GDP Q3

(Wed, November 23, 2022)

CPI Oct

(Fri, November 25, 2022)

Industrial Production Oct


United States

(Tuesday, November 22, 2022)

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

(Wednesday, November 23, 2022)

Building Permits, Durable Goods Orders Oct, Initial Jobless Claims, Manufacturing PMI Nov, S&P Global Composite PMI Nov, Service PMI Nov, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, New Home Sales Oct, Crude Oil Inventories

FOMC Meeting Minutes

(Thursday, November 24, 2022)

Thanksgiving Day (Holiday)

(Friday, November 25, 2022)

Thanksgiving Day (Holiday) - close at 13:00 US times

🕳️

Next 2022 FOMC Meetings:

December. 14-15


China / Hong Kong

(Monday, November 21, 2022))

HK, CPI (YoY) Oct

(Saturday, November 26, 2022))

CNY, Chinese Industrial Profit


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Last Week Economic Data Review :

Singapore

Non-Oil Exports (YoY) Oct (3.10% ➡️ -5.60%)

Trade Balance (5.783B ➡️ 4.071B)


United States

PPI (MoM) Oct (0.2% ➡️ 0.2%)

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Nov) (-9.10 ➡️ 4.50)

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (5.618M ➡️ -5.835M)

Retail Sales (MoM) Oct (0.0% ➡️1.3%)

Export Price Index (MoM) Oct (-1.5% ➡️-0.3%)

Import Price Index (MoM) Oct (-1.1% ➡️-0.2%)

Industrial Production (MoM) Oct (0.1% ➡️-0.1%)

Business Inventories (MoM) Sep (0.9% ➡️0.4%)

Crude Oil Inventories (3.925M ➡️-5.400M)

Building Permits (MoM) Oct (1.4% ➡️ -2.4%)

Housing Starts (MoM) Oct (-1.3% ➡️ -4.2%)

Initial Jobless Claims (226K ➡️222K)

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (219K ➡️ 221K)

Existing Home Sales (MoM) Oct (-1.5% ➡️ -5.9%)


China / Hong Kong

China, Industrial Production (YoY) Oct

China, Retail Sales (YoY) Oct

China, Unemployment Rate


 

“If you don’t like something, change it. If you can’t change it, change your attitude.” — Maya Angelou

 

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Other Focus (Highlights of Results / Corporate Actions):

Other extracted news:

  • TSMC founder Chang says US welcomes chipmaker's Arizona plant plan

  • DBS re-initiates 'buy' on ThaiBev, calling it one of the 'most valuable' large-cap Asean F&B counters

  • Singapore wants to sell the world on cell-cultured seafood

  • Analysts issue downgrades on Nanofilm as outlook worsens


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SGX & Other Newsfeed

💡 SGX <Analyst Research>




📈 Recent Manufacturing Index Gains powered by Tech & Healthcare Sectors The indicative iEdge SG Advanced Manufacturing Index has generated a 7% gain over the first 9-sessions of November, with S$84M of net institutional inflows. The recent momentum has brought the 3-year total return of the Manufacturing Index to 25%, which is comparable to the FTSE Developed Index total return, while outpacing the 12% and 2% respective total returns for the STI and the FTSE Asia Pacific Index. Constituents of the Manufacturing Index also contributed 17% of Singapore's average daily stock market turnover in the 2022 YTD. 5 of the 20 most traded stocks of the Manufacturing Index that have seen the strongest gains in early November included Frencken, Riverstone, UMS, Top Glove, YZJ Shipbldg and AEM. The 5 averaged 19% MTD returns.


Read more at: bit.ly/3O6xKJG


📈 [REIT Watch on The Business Times - Hospitality S-REITs ride on pent-up travel demand and the return of events in 3Q22]


International tourist arrivals to Singapore rose for a ninth straight month in October and this is expected to continue to grow at a gradual pace in the coming months.


Hospitality trusts with Singapore assets - namely CapitaLand Ascott Trust, CDL Hospitality Trusts, Far East Hospitality Trust and Frasers Hospitality Trust - observed significant improvements in occupancy and RevPAR in the last quarter, driven by the return of large-scale events and the MICE industry, alongside pent-up demand for overseas travels.


Read more at: bit.ly/3AANJdt




Closing


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(Waived for US and HK Foreign Custody fee until 31 December 2022.)




 

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