SGX
What’s Trending: Looking Ahead to 2024 – A Tale of Two Halves
Phillip Capital Market Reports:
Phillip Daily Morning Note :
US Market (By Phillip Global Markets Night Desk)
8 December 2023
Job Growth Cooling with Low Recession Risk
The U.S. economy generated 199,000 new jobs in November, above our
forecast of 145,000 and the consensus of 180,000. October's result was
unrevised at 150,000. November's increase in payrolls took the three-month
average to 204,000, which is below the 12-month average of 240,000. The
unemployment rate dropped to 3.7% from 3.9%. These statistics support our
view that the job market is cooling and that there is less than a 50% chance of
a recession in 2024. This morning's report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
(BLS) should not change the Fed's plans to hold the funds rate at 5.25%-5.5%
when it meets next week, but it may delay the timing of a rate cut. Average
hourly earnings increased 12 cents month-to-month and are now 4.0% higher
year-over-year, consistent with October (which was revised lower). The
average workweek ticked up to 34.4 hours in November. Job gains occurred
in healthcare and government. Employment also increased in manufacturing,
as workers returned from a strike. Employment in retail trade declined.
Employment was little changed in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas
extraction; construction; wholesale trade; financial activities; professional and
business services; and other services. Job gains in September and October
were revised lower by 35,000. According to a separate report from the BLS,
there were 1.3 job openings in October for each person unemployed. This is
down from 1.7 a year earlier. The ratio has averaged 0.68 since December
2000. After this morning's report, stock futures were little changed and the
yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.23% from 4.19%. Before the release,
futures suggested a 98% probability that the Fed will stand pat when it meets
next week, with no change after the release. The chance of a 25-basis-point
rate cut when the Fed meets in March declined to 47% from 50% before this
morning's report.
Market Wrap
Stock futures fell and bond yields rose after jobs data bolstered speculation that Wall Street’s bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts next year may have gone too far.
US employers added more jobs than expected and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in November. Nonfarm payrolls increased 199,000 last month following a 150,000 advance in October. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7% and workforce participation edged up. Monthly wage growth rose more than forecast.
Today's Big News
US Labor Market Defies Slowdown Forecasts in Broad Strengthening
Lemssouguer’s Arini Hedge Fund Targets Deals for Two More CLOs
Trafigura Triples Dividend to $5.9 Billion After Record Profit
Country Garden’s Chair Says Confident in Repairing Balance Sheet
Putin to Seek Reelection as Kremlin Culture War Rallies Voters
Indian Lawmaker Who Questioned Modi’s Links to Adani Ousted (1)
OCBC
Market Pulse (08 December 2023)
DBS
DBS VICKERS Daily Newsletter | 8 Dec 2023
Your daily newsletter
Suburban malls are leveraging on shifts in spending with tenant sales >10% above pre-COVID levels, driving retailers to expand their presence in suburban areas
Tourism receipts to surpass 2019 levels next year, driven by bi-leisure effect of longer stays and higher spending, with F&B experiences capturing a larger wallet share
Occupancy costs at a 6-year low due to effective cost management by retailers while rent reversions can be sustained at 3-5% aided by tight vacancies below 1%
What are our top picks in the sector?
Singapore Retail S-REITs
Seeking safety in suburban malls
Suburban malls are leveraging on shifts in spending with tenant sales >10% above pre-COVID levels, driving retailers to expand their presence in suburban areas
Tourism receipts to surpass 2019 levels next year, driven by bi-leisure effect of longer stays and higher spending, with F&B experiences capturing a larger wallet share
Occupancy costs at a 6-year low due to effective cost management by retailers while rent reversions can be sustained at 3-5% aided by tight vacancies below 1%
What are our top picks in the sector?
CapitaLand China Trust (CLCT SP)
Divestment of Shuangjing mall for 37%; will management start a share buy-back at 0.6x P/B?
CLCT announced the divestment of Shuangjing mall for c.S$159m (net asset value of S$143m), representing a c.37% upside to the assets latest valuation
Master lease tenant at Shuangjing mall has fallen into arrears in the last quarter, contributing c.2% to total gross rental income (GRI), the deal will mean the exit of this tenant from within the portfolio and a de-risk of retail tenant profile
Proceeds will be recycled to pare down debt (~5% cost) or buy back shares upon completion in 1Q24, which we believe to be overall supportive to share price
Do we see an opportunity window for investors to re-enter or double down?
Daiwa House Logistics Trust (DHLT SP)
Bite from currency headwinds may soften
Downside risk to projections should narrow with the recent as well as projected appreciation of the JPY against the SGD
Concerns of further yen depreciation may have peaked -> SGD/JPY has come off its 112 peak in mid-November to 107 at today’s levels, and should move towards 101 in 4Q24
Do we see limited downside for DHLT?
Singapore Equity Picks: Read more
Hong Kong Equity Picks: Read more
UOB
UOBKH: Country Dailies: Friday, December 08, 2023
Click on the link for Greater China Daily.
Click on the link for Indonesia Daily.
Click on the link for Malaysia Daily.
Click on the link for Singapore Daily.
Click on the link for Thailand Daily.
KGI
TRADING IDEAS: 🇸🇬 SINGAPORE
8 December 2023
🏙 Genting Singapore Ltd (GENS SP): China-Singapore mutual visa-free in 2024
BUY Entry 0.95 – Target – 1.05 Stop Loss – 0.90
🏢 Centurion Corp Ltd (CENT SP): Early signs of a re-rating catalyst
RE-ITERATE BUY Entry 0.40 – Target – 0.44 Stop Loss – 0.38
➡️ Read More: https://www.kgieworld.sg/research/dec08sg23
Technical Analysis: 8 December 2023
🇸🇬 SG
Genting Singapore Ltd (GENS SP)
SBS Transit Ltd (SBUS SP)
🇭🇰 HK
Tianqi Lithium Corp (9696 HK)
Ganfeng Lithium Group Co Ltd (1772 HK)
Read More: https://www.kgieworld.sg/research/dec08ta23
Top Stories, 8 Dec 2023
1. Asia markets set for largely lower open ahead of Japan GDP numbers, India rate decision
2. Introducing ICE Micro MSCI Index Futures. Calculated by MSCI, a leading provider of index solutions serving the world’s institutional investors, the MSCI USA and MSCI Europe Indices are designed to capture the full opportunity set in their respective regions.
3. Wall Street’s AI Craze Drives Nasdaq 100 Up 1.5%: Markets Wrap
4. China and EU leaders agree on need for 'balanced' trade ties at summit
5. Oil drops to 6-month low on weak economic outlook, high U.S. supply
6. USD/JPY recovers back over 144.00 after a rebound from steep Thursday declines
CIMB
Hi all,Please refer to below for the technical charts of the day.
SIN
Bullish uptrend in an early stage
HKG
Bullish continuation ahead
Bullish trend ongoing
MAL
· At 52-week high
Upside to continue?
ASEAN: CGS-CIMB ASEAN Daily - 08 December 2023
▌ RECOMMENDATION CHANGES & INITIATIONS
THB: Eastern Polymer Group (ADD▲, tp:THB7.88▲) (ESG) - Emerging from a trough (7/12)
▌ ECONOMIC & STRATEGY NOTES
THB: Economic Update - Uncertainties for inflation in 2024F (7/12)
▌ SECTOR & COMPANY NOTES
THB: Retail (OVERWEIGHT) - Slow consumption during high season (7/12)
▌ RECENT 'IDEAs OF THE DAY'...
ASEAN: Economic Focus - Not a time to convalesce (6/12)
THB: Strategy Note - Navigating Thailand (1/12)
MAL: Banks (OVERWEIGHT) - Don’t lose sleep over asset quality (16/11)
MAL: Utilities - Overall (OVERWEIGHT) - Malaysia, ASEAN’s renewable battery (6/11)
MAL: Strategy Note - Budget 2024: policy continuity (14/10)
APAC: ASIA Pacific Daily - 08 December 2023
▌ RECOMMENDATION CHANGES & INITIATIONS...
HKG: EC Healthcare (HOLD▼, tp:HKD2.07▼) - Cost-cutting may yield results in FY25F (7/12)
THB: Eastern Polymer Group (ADD▲, tp:THB7.88▲) (ESG) - Emerging from a trough (7/12)
▌ STRATEGY & ECONOMIC NOTES...
THB: Economic Update - Uncertainties for inflation in 2024F (7/12)
▌ SECTOR & COMPANY NOTES...
CHN: Ping An Bank (ADD, tp:CNY13.10) - Regional financial conference takeaways (7/12)
KR: SK Hynix (ADD, tp:KRW170,000.00) (HC) - We expect positive OP in 4Q23F (7/12)
THB: Retail (OVERWEIGHT) - Slow consumption during high season (7/12)
▌ RECENT 'IDEAs OF THE DAY'...
ASEAN: Economic Focus - Not a time to convalesce (6/12)
THB: Strategy Note - Navigating Thailand (1/12)
KR: Hugel Inc (ADD, tp:KRW181,000.00▲) - Riding on China’s BTX market expansion (24/11)
MAL: Banks (OVERWEIGHT) - Don’t lose sleep over asset quality (16/11)
MAL: Utilities - Overall (OVERWEIGHT) - Malaysia, ASEAN’s renewable battery (6/11)
Lim&Tan
MORNING UPDATE 08 DEC 2023: FINANCIAL MARKETS, VENTURE CORP, COMFORTDELGRO, BCA RESEARCH / BLOOMBERG MACRO FINANCIAL NEWS
MayBank
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