SGX
Phillip Capital Market Reports:
Phillip Daily Morning Note :
US Market (By Phillip Global Markets Night Desk)
11 December 2023
Argus Reaffirms Sector Ratings
We have reviewed our recommended sector allocations this month and are
maintaining our current sector Over-Weight, Under-Weight, and
Market-Weight recommendations. Our six-part model awards or subtracts a
point for each metric; sums all points to determine an all-sector score; divides
by the number of sectors (11) to set an average sector score; and determines
recommended sector weighting based on sector score in relation to sector
average. The multi-stage model includes: a performance ranking system,
which assigns points for monthly, quarterly, and YTD sector performance
versus the benchmark (S&P 500); current sector P/E versus 5-year P/E, with
points awarded for discount to S&P 500 current versus 5-year P/E delta;
two-year earnings growth, with points awarded for exceeding benchmark
average and for EPS acceleration; relative performance to the sector group
average; sector conviction, meaning BUY rating percentage per sector versus
total Argus BUY rating percentage; and PEG ratio, with points awarded or
subtracted based on sector PEG ratios below or above the group average.
This time, our process yielded 40 total points, for an average sector score of
3.6. To earn a recommended over-weight designation, sectors had to score
five points or above; for market-weight, three or four points; and for
under-weight, two points or below. Our current Over-Weight sectors remain
Communication Services, Financial Services, Consumer Discretionary, and
Technology. Our current Market-Weight sectors are Materials, Industrials,
Healthcare, Real Estate, and Utilities. Our Under-Weight sectors are Energy
and Consumer Staples.
Market Wrap
Global equities posted modest moves at the start of a busy week of economic data and central bank meetings that will test optimism among investors that interest rates will soon head lower.
US futures contracts were steady. Macy’s Inc. jumped 22% in premarket after it was said to receive a $5.8 billion buyout offer from Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital Management. Occidental Petroleum Corp. fluctuated after reaching a deal to acquire Texas shale driller CrownRock LP for about $12 billion. Nike Inc., Snap Inc. and Pinterest Inc. rose after analyst upgrades. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index edged higher.
Today's Big News
Billionaire Steve Cohen Pushes Point72 Deeper Into Macro Trading
Real Estate Titans Battle DeSantis Over China Property Crackdown
Rate Cuts Can’t Come Fast Enough for Debt-Strapped Companies
COP28 UAE’s Presidency Floats Reduction of Fossil Fuels by 2050
Strategist Who Called 2023 Rally Sees S&P 500 at 5,200 Next Year
Equal-Weight S&P 500 Finds Fans as Rally Broadens: Taking Stock
OCBC
SG: Weekly S-REITS Tracker (11 December 2023)
Singapore Stocks: Dividend Yield Monitor (11 December 2023)
Market Pulse (11 December 2023)
DBS
Your daily newsletter
US economy added 199,000 jobs in November, leading to an unexpected decline in unemployment rate to 3.7%
China’s CPI fell 0.5% y-o-y in November, the steepest decline since 2020
Australia will triple fees for foreign buyers of existing home in an effort to address the rental crisis
Singapore: Industrial REITs
A year of renewed optimism in FY24
Decade-high supply a key hurdle for market to maintain rental growth
Divergent performance emerges among property types as flight to quality prevails; positive on modern logistics, high-spec and selected business parks clusters
Modest FY24-25F DPU growth of c.1.3% with acquisitions as a potential surprise
What are our top picks in the sector?
Singapore Hotels
The fifth reason visitor arrivals in 1Q24 may outpace 4Q23
Singapore and China to establish a mutual 30-day visa-free arrangement with implementation likely in early 2024
Arrivals data this year suggests that the return of Chinese travellers can be a needle-mover for Singapore’s visitor statistics
What are our top picks within S-REIT hotel plays?
China Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) Sector:
Bullish outlook supported by rising localisation
ERP market to sustain healthy growth of 12% p.a. in 2023-2025, contrary to market concerns on IT spending slow down
Domestic ERPs to grow at c.18% p.a. in 2024-2025, riding on localisation; share of domestic ERPs to increase from 80% to 95% by 2027
AI monetisation to provide additional growth to the sector; 20% of pricing uplift is observed during early stage of commencement
Which company do we anticipate long-term growth potential?
China/Hong Kong Consumer Sector
2024 Outlook: discretionary
powers
We stay positive along with sustained sales recovery and further room for margin expansion across >10 industries of the consumer sector. Overall, discretionaries are preferred over staples given their faster revenue growth, lesser trade downs, and firmer profitability gains.
Recent concerns on consumption downgrades or heated up online competition in Mainland China could have been overplayed. We also see a silver lining from the rising consumption of higher income groups post-COVID-19 as well as sustainable offline business models.
Which company do we anticipate strong upside in 2024?
Singapore Equity Picks: Read more
Hong Kong Equity Picks: Read more
UOB
UOBKH: Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, December 11, 2023 [002230 CH, 2331 HK, INTP IJ, WPRTS MK, SG Aviation]
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UOBKH: Country Dailies: Monday, December 11, 2023
Click on the link for Greater China Daily.
Click on the link for Indonesia Daily.
Click on the link for Malaysia Daily.
Click on the link for Singapore Daily.
Thailand: Closed
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UOBKH: Retail Market Monitor: Monday, December 11, 2023
KGI
Technical Analysis: 11 December 2023
🇸🇬 SG
SIA Engineering Co Ltd (SIE SP)
Seatrium Ltd (SMM SP)
🇭🇰 HK
MGM China Holdings Ltd (2282 HK)
Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK)
Read More: https://www.kgieworld.sg/research/dec11ta23
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TRADING IDEAS: 🇸🇬 SINGAPORE
11 December 2023
🏙 Genting Singapore Ltd (GENS SP): China-Singapore mutual visa-free in 2024
BUY Entry 0.95 – Target – 1.05 Stop Loss – 0.90
🏢 Centurion Corp Ltd (CENT SP): Early signs of a re-rating catalyst
RE-ITERATE BUY Entry 0.40 – Target – 0.44 Stop Loss – 0.38
➡️ Read More: https://www.kgieworld.sg/research/dec11sg23
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Top Stories, 11 Dec 2023
1. Stock futures are slightly higher ahead of final Fed meeting of 2023: Live updates
2. Bursa Malaysia East Malaysia Crude Palm Oil Futures (FEPO). FEPO is a Ringgit Malaysia ("MYR") denominated Crude Palm Oil Futures Contract traded on Bursa Malaysia, complementing the existing FCPO contract with specifications designed to meet the needs of market participants with exposure to the East Malaysia palm oil market.
Find out more: https://www.kgieworld.sg/futures/bursa-malaysia-fepo
3. Big divisions loom over fossil fuels as COP28 talks head into final phase
4. Spurred by a domestic property debacle and a currency sell-off, Shanghai high-net-worth individuals hunt for overseas homes
5. Crypto Strategist Predicts Imminent Bitcoin Rally to $50,000 – Here’s His Timeline
6. Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds above $2,000, investors await US CPI data
CIMB
MAL: CGS-CIMB Daybreak - 11 December 2023
▍ What's on the Table...
MAL: Hong Leong Bank (ADD, tp:MYR26.30) - Rolling up its sleeves to raise ROE - 8/12
HLB aims to raise its ROE from 11.8% in FY6/23 to 12.0-12.5% in FY24-25F and above 12.5% in FY26F. If HLB hits its ROE targets, its FY24-26F net profit would be 7-13% higher than our forecasts, translating into an FY23-26F net profit CAGR of 10.8%. Reaffirm Add on HLB, given its attractive CY24F P/E of 10x (vs. 5-year average of 12.2x), despite having one of the best fundamentals in the sector.
▍ News of the Day....
Trendspotter – MY- MSM Malaysia Holdings (5202) (Technical Buy, 1.55): On the way to new highs?
• DOSM: Unemployment rate remained unchanged mom at 3.4% in Oct-23
• DOSM: Unit price index of steel rose 0.1-2.0% mom for most areas in Nov-23
• YTLP confirms collaboration with Nvidia on data centre for AI infrastructure
• Westports secures 58-year extension to 2082 with Port Klang Authority
• Sime Darby Property and Brunsfield Metropolitan to terminate 60:40 JV
• Mah Sing acquires 4-acre land in Mukim Setapak, Kuala Lumpur for RM74.3m
• Genting Singapore’s RWS issued SGD2.25m penalty by gaming regulator
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Trendspotter of the day (SIN/HKG/MAL/APAC): 11th December 2023
Please refer to below for the technical charts of the day.
SIN
Bullish trend to continue
Bullish uptrend in an early stage
HKG
Bullish trend is back?
Bullish upside in an early stage
MAL
On the way to new highs?
Triangle breakout
APAC+US
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ASEAN: CGS-CIMB ASEAN Daily - 11 December 2023
▌ SECTOR & COMPANY NOTES
IND: Banks (OVERWEIGHT) - Regional financial conference takeaways (8/12)
MAL: Hong Leong Bank (ADD, tp:MYR26.30) - Rolling up its sleeves to raise ROE (8/12)
▌ RECENT 'IDEAs OF THE DAY'...
ASEAN: Economic Focus - Not a time to convalesce (6/12)
THB: Strategy Note - Navigating Thailand (1/12)
MAL: Banks (OVERWEIGHT) - Don’t lose sleep over asset quality (16/11)
MAL: Utilities - Overall (OVERWEIGHT) - Malaysia, ASEAN’s renewable battery (6/11)
MAL: Strategy Note - Budget 2024: policy continuity (14/10)
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MAL: Strategy Flash Note - Cabinet
Lim&Tan
MORNING UPDATE 11 DEC 2023: FINANCIAL MARKETS, KEPPEL CORP, US ECONOMY, BCA RESEARCH / BLOOMBERG MACRO FINANCIAL NEWS
MayBank
MAYBANK SECURITIES - EM Asia Headlines 11122023
Indonesia
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