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Writer's pictureAda Tam Ying Ying
Sep 30, 20236 min read

29Sep2023 Reports

Updated: Oct 10, 2023


What's Trending: Oil plays in spotlight as crude prices rise


Singapore Depository Receipts provide investors access to some of Thailand’s largest companies



Economic Calendar :




SGX















 

Phillip Capital Market Reports:


Phillip Daily Morning Note :



US Market (By Phillip Global Markets Night Desk)

29 September 2023

Checking Our List: Holiday Sales May Rise 3%

We expect holiday sales to rise 3% this year to almost $1 trillion. With the unemployment rate below 4%, this should be another festive season despite elevated inflation, tight monetary policy, and the end of financial assistance programs enacted during the pandemic. This month, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said the back-to-school season started strong and that normally means the holiday season is going to be "good." The average annual sales gain during the past 20 holidays has been 4%, with a 5% increase last year and a high of 14% in the pandemic-recovery year of 2021. The period's only decline, of 5%, came as the economy entered a deep recession in 2008. We calculate holiday sales the same way the National Retail Federation does, based on the year-over-year change in the Commerce Department's Retail Sales data for the combined months of November and December. Like the NRF, we exclude sales at gas stations, car dealers, and restaurants -- and focus on core retail. There are three big categories that represent two-thirds of holiday sales and drive our forecast: grocery stores, General merchandise stores, and e-commerce. Our forecasts for those categories are +2%, +2.5%, and +6.6%, respectively. E-commerce is the toughest call. The category must lap 9.5% growth during the 2022 season on top of 11.3% in 2021, but online spending has remained strong, growing 7.6% year-over-year in August and 11.8% (aided by Amazon Prime Days) in July. The exclusion of restaurants boosted our tally during the pandemic because people didn't eat out, and spent more of their food budget at grocery stores. We expect that spending trend to reverse this year. For the first eight months of 2023, groceries were up 3.3% and restaurants were up 12%. Mastercard expects retail sales to grow 3.7% from November 1 through December 24, helped by 6.7% growth in e-commerce and 5.4% growth at restaurants.

Market Wrap

Stock futures extended a climb and a drop in bond yields deepened after the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation increased at a slower pace than expected.

S&P 500 contracts rose 0.7%. Treasury two-year yields, which are more sensitive to imminent policy moves, fell to 5.03%. The dollar slumped.

Today's Big News

- US Core PCE Prices Post Smallest Monthly Rise Since Late 2020

- BlackRock CEO Larry Fink Sees US 10-Year Yields Heading Above 5%

- Investors Marooned in Private Equity Mull 10% Loans to Get Cash

- At Least 52 Killed in Blast Near Pakistan Mosque, Dawn Says

- Lula’s ‘Pro-Deal’ Agenda Is Helping M&A, Evercore Partner Says

- Marathon Expands Private Lending, Eyeing $2 Trillion Opportunity









 

OCBC










 

DBS


  1. US weekly jobless claims rose to 204k, lower than expected

  2. US pending home sales index fell 7.1%m-o-m in Aug as 30-year fixed mortgage rates remain above 7%

  3. Nike’s 1Q EPS of US$0.94 beats estimates of US$0.75; China revenue missed expectations


China/Hong Kong Monthly Market Pulse

Sailing through choppy waters

  1. No need to be too pessimistic despite higher-for-longer US interest rates

  2. We see bottoming economy, attractive valuation and more favourable seasonality

  3. Tactical rebound likely, but not yet time to pull trigger for a sustained rally

  4. Who are our top picks in the China/Hong Kong market?

  5. Click here to read our views

Singapore Technology

Read-through from Micron’s results supports semiconductor industry recovery

  1. Positive takeaway from Micron’s sequential revenue guidance despite steeper-than-expected reported losses

  2. Sequential improvement in Micron’s topline affirm our analysts’ view of an easing chip glut, with industry recovery to be led by the memory segment

  3. Against this backdrop, we prefer companies with higher exposure to the memory segment

  4. Which stocks do we prefer?

  5. Click here to read our views

China Retail S-REITs

Capturing the shift in China’s consumption patterns

  1. Evolving consumption basket of Chinese consumers indicate that outlet malls, suburban retail and online are key growth retail formats and platforms

  2. Seeing a shift towards reduced spending on big ticket items, discretionary retail, and travel

  3. Our China-focused retail S-REITs are well positioned to capture the budget-conscious spender

  4. Who are our top picks in this sector?

  5. Click here to read our views

SEA Ltd (SE US)

E-commerce back in focus

  1. Indonesia bans social e-commerce effective immediately

  2. TikTok Shop might struggle to (i) secure a license as a standalone business and (ii) succeed as a separate app as bulk of its purchases are impulse

  3. What’s the earnings upside for the company from this new regulation?

  4. Click here to read our views

DBS Group Research | Equity Picks

Singapore Equity Picks: Read more

Hong Kong Equity Picks: Read more


 

UOB



UOBKH: Country Dailies: Friday, September 29, 2023

Click on the link for Greater China Daily.


Click on the link for Indonesia Daily.


Click on the link for Malaysia Daily.


Click on the link for Singapore Daily.


Click on the link for Thailand Daily.




UOBKH: Retail Market Monitor: Friday, September 29, 2023


Click on the link for details.





UOBKH: Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, September 29, 2023


Click on the link for details.




 

CIMB


APAC: ASIA Pacific Daily - 29 September 2023

Equity Research Reports....


▌ RECOMMENDATION CHANGES & INITIATIONS...

MAL: Berjaya Food Berhad (ADD▲, tp:MYR1.00▲) - Margins set to rebound; upgrade to Add (28/9)

THB: S Hotels and Resorts (ADD▲, tp:THB3.30▲) - Risk-reward turning more attractive (28/9)

▌ SECTOR & COMPANY NOTES...

MAL: Beshom Holdings Bhd (HOLD, tp:MYR0.99) - A weak start to FY24F, but hope remains (28/9)

SIN: City Developments (ADD, tp:SGD8.97) (ESG) - Diversifying into Tokyo PRS sector (28/9)

▌ RECENT 'IDEAs OF THE DAY'...

HKG: Property - Overall (NEUTRAL) - Time to lift some of the “harsh measures” (27/9)

CHN: Navigator-Strategy - Ride out of the bottom (25/9)

SIN: Singapore Post Ltd (ADD▲, tp:SGD0.60▲) - What’s next? (18/9)

THB: Retail (OVERWEIGHT) (ESG) - Stronger after the storm (15/9)

MAL: Malaysia Airports Holdings (ADD▲, tp:MYR7.76▲) - Exciting times to return (13/9)



ASEAN: CGS-CIMB ASEAN Daily - 29 September 2023

Equity Research Reports....


▌ RECOMMENDATION CHANGES & INITIATIONS

MAL: Berjaya Food Berhad (ADD▲, tp:MYR1.00▲) - Margins set to rebound; upgrade to Add (28/9)

THB: S Hotels and Resorts (ADD▲, tp:THB3.30▲) - Risk-reward turning more attractive (28/9)

▌ SECTOR & COMPANY NOTES

MAL: Beshom Holdings Bhd (HOLD, tp:MYR0.99) - A weak start to FY24F, but hope remains (28/9)

SIN: City Developments (ADD, tp:SGD8.97) (ESG) - Diversifying into Tokyo PRS sector (28/9)

▌ RECENT 'IDEAs OF THE DAY'...

SIN: Singapore Post Ltd (ADD▲, tp:SGD0.60▲) - What’s next? (18/9)

THB: Retail (OVERWEIGHT) (ESG) - Stronger after the storm (15/9)

MAL: Malaysia Airports Holdings (ADD▲, tp:MYR7.76▲) - Exciting times to return (13/9)

THB: Oil & Gas Refinery (UNDERWEIGHT) - Diesel-led GRM recovery in 2H23F (12/9)

THB: Hospitals (OVERWEIGHT) - A race for medical tourism in Thailand (8/9)




 

KGI


Technical Analysis: 29 September 2023

🇸🇬 SG

Dyna-Mac Holdings Ltd. (DMHL SP)

Jardine Cycle & Carriage. (JCNC SP)

🇭🇰 HK

China Unicom Hong Kong Ltd (762 HK)

Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Co Ltd (874 HK)



TRADING IDEAS: 🇸🇬 SINGAPORE

29 September 2023

🏙 Geo Energy Resources Limited (GERL SP): Profit off from seasonality

BUY Entry 0.260 – Target – 0.305 Stop Loss – 0.240

🏢 Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP): Double bonanzas-record order book and weak RMB

RE-ITEREATE BUY Entry 1.67 – Target 1.80– Stop Loss – 1.61


Top Stories, 29 Sep 2023


1. Stock futures inch higher as S&P 500 and Nasdaq face worst month in 2023: Live updates

2. Bursa Malaysia East Malaysia Crude Palm Oil Futures (FEPO). FEPO is a Ringgit Malaysia ("MYR") denominated Crude Palm Oil Futures Contract traded on Bursa Malaysia, complementing the existing FCPO contract with specifications designed to meet the needs of market participants with exposure to the East Malaysia palm oil market.

3. Oil eases 1%, reversing rally, on profit taking, interest rate worries

4. US, China talks gather momentum, paving way for Xi-Biden Summit: WSJ

5. China’s ‘golden week’ spending and travel surge seen as economic boon


6. USD/JPY holding onto 149.30 despite US Dollar retreat


 

CIMB


Trendspotter of the day (SIN/HKG/MAL): 29th September 2023


Please refer to below for the technical charts of the day.

SIN

  • Bullish reversal spotted after period of consolidation

HKG

  • Breaking out of the bottom range

MAL

  • Triangle breakout

  • At 19-month high



 

Lim&Tan









 

MayBank


V.S. Industry (VSI MK)

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