Into the month of October while people are celebrating Halloween, the Q3 earnings reporting season is also on its way to kick start. But this year, investors are much more cautious than before, as the uncertainty arises from the US election as well as the dollar valuation, is increasing. The movements of funds had become even more erratic than before, and it was partially contributed by the fact that U.S. Federal Reserve started its first cut on interest rate by 50 basis points in September. Some "Hot money"could have been flowing out of U.S. into Asia markets.
In addition to the above, together with the recent stimulus packages initiated by Beijing government had somehow made Shanghai and Hong Kong markets the biggest beneficiary this time. The weaker dollar had also given other currencies a chance to push its related assets value higher. However, USD had rebounded recently, and tried to catch up with the gold price that at its all-time high now. Hence, investors must keep your eyes on the currency exchange rate while trading the markets today.
US election is just round the corner. After some fengshui calculation, it seemed that the winning party may likely a woman ever though Donald Trump is leading in the election now. Anyway, we need to be more vigilant in our trading from now till US elections over, and FOMC meeting will kick start right after that. Meanwhile, U.S. markets will swing and take turn to speculate on Trump or Harris presidency. If Trump wins, bitcoin will be speculated higher, and Tesla will also be in the limelight. But if Harris wins, will the current economy situation remains?... I believe nobody can give an definite answer at this moment. But either side wins, one thing for sure is trade war continues.
Last but not least, retail sales is expecting to go up with Christmas shopping and New Year holiday. So investors can start to bargin hunt for some undervalued retail related U.S. counters...
Things to watch:
US Officials: Israel Won't Strike Iranian Nuclear or Oil Sites
[Crude Oil is back to US 70 and above after pushing back for 3 days] Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in September 2024, down from a 10.7% increase in August and missing market expectations of a 9.5% rise. This also marks the slowest in the current growth sequence, as both electronic and non-electronic shipments expanded at a more moderate pace.https://tradingeconomics.com/singapore/exports-of-non-oil-domestic-exports-of
Comments