Date 4 Apr 2025 (Fri) : My China Trip sparks me thoughts of today's stock market
- Ada Tam Ying Ying
- Apr 4
- 4 min read
I was just back from a short holiday from Shanghai, China a week ago. I must say that China still accepts Cash and they can give back the exact change for every purchase I made! But one problem, not all iPhones work with eSim card and my iPhone XS just refused to get connected with the China network provider, and wasted money on my eSim... see [Ref]
Interestingly, one thing I had learnt from my China trip is their history. And their huge trade surplus is not something new, and probably set stage for so many wars in the past. But what has it got to do with the stock market?
I had picked 4 indexes to plot the following comparison chart, and zoom into the performance and the correlations of these indexes during the first presidency of Donald Trump in 2017-2020 and Biden in 2021-2024. I want to conclude as follow:
During Trump 1.0, Donald Trump had benchmarked his performance as a president against the stock market, and I vividly remembered the U.S. stock markets at that time kept breaking record-high, and any big drop seem to be a buying opportunity. And one thing to note is the China–U.S trade war at that time, turned really sour in 2019, but China still managed to stay afloat in 2020.
The Democratic party won in 2021 election, but Donald Trump was down with series of lawsuits and market correction also follow suit. The real bull run was back again in the later part in 2022, 2 years after Biden Biden took over the white house. During that time, Federal Reserve began a series of rate hikes in early 2022 to fight against inflation with the rate moving from 0.33 percent in April 2022 to 5.33 percent in August 2023.
Let's review the difference and change over different U.S. leadership :
During Biden administration, the LGBTQ+ and DEI initiatives (aim to create inclusive and equitable environments for all, including LGBTQ+ individuals.) were widely supported by the federal government. But Donald Trump issued two executive orders to end it after he won the elections
Who are the rich LGBTQ+ : Tim Cook (Apple CEO), Peter Thiel (PayPal co-founder), Giorgio Armani (fashion designer), and David Geffen (DreamWorks co-founder). [link]
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Biden gave his firm supports to NATO alliance, and form partnership with some Asia countries like Japan, India, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam... making 2024 the global stock markets to rally at record high except China and Hong Kong.
In 2025, Trump is back to white house... and this time his political directives works rather differently compare to his first presidency 4 years ago. His tariff war surprised everyone by kick start with 25% tariffs on the befriended countries, Canada and Mexico, but just additional 10% on China. Beside, reducing the U.S. Trade Deficit, he also wants to cut the government spending by getting Tesla's boss, Elon Musk to conduct a mass layoff across all government sectors. [Trump's executive orders]
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Biden provided military aid packages by signing bills to provide billions of fundings as foreign aid to Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan.
Trump is not interested in wars, but rather eyeing on the Ukraine's resources and prefers to take over Canada (asked to be the 51st state of U.S.), Greenland and the Panama Canal as part of his strategic plan to build a bigger America
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Trump expressed interest to seek a third term as US president...
My conclusion :
I believe the real bull run may come back again in 2027 as Trump may want to reform the federal government after the mass layoff, which may take 1-2 years to complete. And he had already warned about the adjustment period : GOP rep warns of an ‘adjustment period’ for Trump’s tariffs
Trump may learned his lesson in the past 8 years, and he may not focus just on the stock market performance alone like before.
185 Counties are affected by reciprocal tariffs on 2 Apr... tell us that U.S. no longer give priorities to all the "befriend" countries. Therefore, flow of funds may diversify and flow out from United States to other undervalues stocks which were previously under suppression in the political realm. A good example is Hong Kong stock market rose 3000 over points for the past 3 months. As such, this will benefit other countries that previously "unliked" by Biden administration.
Gold will likely to remain strong as long as U.S. political situation remain uncertain.
Dow Jones Index has been falling more than 4000 points from record high of 45,073.63 in Dec 2024... Can Dow Jones Index hold above its psychological level of 4000 points... nobody knows, but no need to run into the U.S. markets during any big fall because it's hard to gauge how deep is the fall. But if you still want to stay in the market, I suggest a few tips
Don't expose only to one market. Diversify your portfolio over various markets across different
If you want to stay vested in stocks in this extremely volatile market. Don't just buy... this market condition needs to trade along.
I somehow believe in the conspiracy theory, and check on who were the supporters of the previous president and who are the supporters of Trump in 2024 Elections, may somehow drop hints of what is going on now... is purely out of revenge or deep thoughts... or something more than that.
Why Russia, Canada and these countries were not part of Trump's tariff hit list [link]
[Ref] : From Google: By government mandate the eSim is not available on iPhone's meant for sale in China, but somehow does not prohibit the use of eSIMs, so if you are currently already using an eSIM or eSIM phone, you will still be able to use your own phone. However, it is important to note that the ability to remain connected largely depends on your network provider and the plan that you have with them.
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