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Writer's pictureAda Tam Ying Ying

Market Update: The First FOMC in 2023 falls on 31 Jan - 1 Feb

Market Update for 16 - 27 Jan 2023

Market forecast from 1 - 6 Feb 2023


Past Events last Weeks:

➡️IMF Raises World Economic Outlook For The First Time In A Year (link) dated 31 Jan

➡️Singapore's 12-month treasury bills draw record demand on signs yields are peaking (link)

➡️Singapore’s inflation eases to 6.5% while MAS core inflation remains unchanged at 5.1% in December

➡️24 Jan: NYSE says certain trades to be cancelled after glitch at open (Business Times)

➡️US sues Google to break up ad unit in heated antitrust fight

➡️US earning announcement for Q4 2022 continue (link)


Market Forecast:

As reporting season began, STI had finally hit the record high level last Friday (27 Jan), revisit the peak of 3400 last April. In US, the Q4 earnings of many tech counters had surprised the market and making indexes to rebound.


For this week, there is one thing that all investors should watch out for, is the market reaction after FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Currently, the market is expecting 0.25% rate hike for Jan this month and the markets may already have priced in the quarter-point of increase. But many key data will be announced right after FOMC on the following 2 days, and data like Initial Jobless Claim, Unemployment Rate, Nonfarm Payrolls... are in fact matter more as they will show sign of whether the recession had really been avoided. Therefore I highly suggest investors to take chance reduce positions and wait till next week before buying into new long positions.

In the month of February, I'm more into the sell mode for all markets. Investors need to take note of the cashflow in the markets had been sucked up into fixed income assets like Treasury Bills and Bond as many investors take chance to lock up into high interest rate financial products before US slow down the interest rate hike in 2023. In addition, many property buyers also started to feel the stress of taking on the housing loans under the current high interest rate environment. As more and more housing projects are due to complete and TOP will require the purchasers to take on the home loans as it is considered as the biggest and lengthiest financial burden of all.

 

My latest Market View published in ZaoBao in the month of January 2023:


Market Summary dated on 30 Jan 23:


Market Summary dated on 21 Jan 23



 

🌀SG Earning Announcement🌀

Watch out for the Final Year Earning reporting season in Feb 2023...


FUTURE

🌀 Highlights of Economic Calendar: 30 Jan - 4 Feb 23 🌀

Mon, 30 Jan 23 SGD : Bank Lending

SGD : Unemployment Rate Q4

CNY : Chinese Composite PMI, Jan CNY : Manufacturing PMI, Jan

Tues, 31 Jan 23 SGD : Business Expectations Q4

USD : CB Consumer Confidence Jan

USD : API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

CNY : Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Jan

Wed, 1 Feb 23 HKD : GDP

GBP : Manufacturing PMI, Jan

USD : OPEC Meeting

USD : ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Jan

USD : ISM Manufacturing PMI, Jan

USD : JOLTs Job Opening, Dec

USD : Crude Oil Inventories

USD : FOMC Statement

USD : Fed Interest Rate Decision

USD : FOMC Press Conference

Thu, 2 Feb 23 USD : Initial Jobless Claims

USD : Nonfarm Productivity Q4

HKD : Manufacturing PMI, Jan

CNY : Caixin Services PMI

Fri, 3 Feb 23 SGD : Retail Sales

GBP : Composite PMI, Services PMI Jan

USD : Nonfarm Payrolls, Jan

USD : Unemployment Rate, Jan

USD : S&P Global Composite PMI, Jan

USD : ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Jan


PAST

🌀 Things to note of past Economic Calendar: 16 -27 Jan 23 🌀


Mon, 16 Jan 23 SGD : Non-Oil Exports MoM : -9.20% to -3.30%

SGD : Non-Oil Exports YoY : -14.70% to -20.60%

SGD : Trade Balance : 3.344B to 5.367B

CNY : Chinese GDP YoY, Q4 : 3.9% to 2.9% CNY : Industrial Production : 2.2% to 1.3%

CNY : Chinese Unemployment Rate : 5.7% to 5.5%

Tues, 17 Jan 23 USD : OPEC Monthly Report [link]

USD : NY Empire State Manufacturing Index : -11.20 to -32.90

Wed, 18 Jan 23 JPY : BoJ Press Conference , BoJ Interest Rate Decision [link]

GBP : CPI YoY, Dec : 10.7% to 10.5%

USD : PPI MoM, Dec : 0.2% to -0.5%

USD : Core Retail Sales : -0.6% to -1.1%

USD : Industrial Production MoM Dec : -0.6% to -0.7%

USD : Business Inventories MoM Nov : 0.2% to 0.4%

USD : Retail Inventories Ex Auto : -0.6% to -0.3%

Thu, 19 Jan 23 USD : Building Permits Dec : 1.351M to 1.330M

USD : Housing Starts Dec : 1.401M to 1.382M

USD : Initial Jobless Claims : 205K to 190K

USD : Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Jan : -13.7 to -8.9

USD : Crude Oil Inventories : 18.962M to 8.408M

Fri, 20 Jan 23 USD : Existing Home Sales, Dec : 4.08M to 4.02M

Tue, 24 Jan 23 USD : S&P Global Composite PMI, Jan : 45.0 to 46.6

USD : API Weekly Crude Oil Stock : 7.615M to 3.378M

Wed, 25 Jan 23 SGD : CPI yoy Dec : 6.7% to 6.5%

USD : Crude Oil Inventories : 8.408M to 0.533M

Thu, 26 Jan 23 SGD : Industrial Production MoM : -1.6% to 3.2%

SGD : Industrial Production YoY : -3.8% to -3.1%

USD : Building Permits : 1.351M to 1.337M

USD : GDP QoQ Q4 : 3.2% to 2.9%

USD : Initial Jobless Claims : 192k to 186k

USD : New Home Sales Dec : 602k to 616k

Fri, 27 Jan 23 USD : Pending Home Sales Mo : -2.6% to 2.5%

 

📌

Other Focus (Highlights of Results / Corporate Actions):

Other extracted news:

  • Volare makes partial offer to Sabana REIT's unitholders

  • Temasek-backed Zilingo to liquidate after crisis at fashion startup

  • Metro Holdings and Boustead Projects announce joint acquisition of industrial property in Tai Seng for $98.8 mil

  • SGX gives approval-in-principle for Sembcorp Marine and Keppel Corp deal

  • CSE Global announces contract wins worth $87.3 mil

  • Chinese search giant Baidu to launch ChatGPT-style bot

  • F&B player YKGI to raise $16.6 mil in IPO at 20 cents per share

  • Yongnam Holdings make several moratorium applications under Insolvency, Restructuring and Dissolution Act

  • SingPost's 19.75% stake in Chinese logistics business to be diluted with potential disposal of interest

  • Crypto firm Genesis is preparing to file for bankruptcy

  • Sats shareholders approve WFS acquisition, projected to be completed by April 2023

US Market:

  • Intel tumbles after forecast suggests comeback is far off

  • SAP plans to sell Qualtrics stake, cut 3,000 jobs

  • US filed Microsoft-Activision suit to head off EU settlement

  • Spotify will cut about 6% of jobs in latest tech layoffs

  • Microsoft adds US$10 bil to investment in ChatGPT maker OpenAI


Earning Results

  • Cromwell European REIT’s portfolio falls to EUR2.49 bil in FY2022, gearing expected to remain below 40%

  • ESR-LOGOS REIT reports 2HFY2022 DPU of 1.54 cents, up by 7.5% y-o-y

  • OUE C-REIT reports higher net property income but lower DPU for 2HFY2022

  • GSS Energy guides for net loss in FY2022

  • Keppel Infra Trust sees 15.8% higher distributable income of $222.5 mil in FY2022

  • Sabana Industrial REIT reports 7.0% y-o-y drop in 2HFY2022 DPU of 1.46 cents

  • CDLHT reports 2HFY2022 DPS of 3.59 cents, up by 17.3% y-o-y

  • CapitaLand Ascott Trust reports 47% increase in 2HFY2022 DPS of 3.33 cents

  • ParkwayLife REIT reports 2.1% rise in FY2022 DPU

  • Starhill Global REIT report 2.2% rise in DPU in 1HFY2023

  • Keppel REIT reports 2HFY2022 DPU of 2.95 cents, up by 2.4% y-o-y

  • Mapletree Industrial Trust announces rare 0.7% decline in DPU for nine months to Dec 31, 2022

  • Frasers Centrepoint Trust reports improved committed occupancy in business update

  • Koh Brothers Eco Engineering reports 7% rise in net profit in FY2022

  • Koh Brothers reports 13% decline in net profit for FY2022

  • AIMS APAC REIT reports 10.2% higher 3QFY2023 DPU of 2.59 cents

  • Suntec REIT reports 9.7% drop in 2HFY2022 DPU of 4.074 cents

  • Mapletree Logistics Trust reports 3QFY2023 dpu of 2.227 cents, up 1.9%

  • Medtecs to incur "significant" loss for 2HFY2022 on inventory write down

  • GuocoLand reports 1HFY2023 earnings of $59 million


📌

SGX & Other Newsfeed

💡 SGX <Analyst Research>



 

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(Waived for US and HK Foreign Custody fee until 31 December 2022.)




 

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